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Modeling ghost GDP: Macro-financial risk and diversified portfolios in the age of artificial intelligence, automation, and populism

The Predistribution Initiative
This PDI working paper stress-tests four AI-driven labour displacement scenarios against US macro-financial data, modelling cascading losses across household debt, corporate credit, equities, pensions, insurance, and fiscal channels. Total economy-wide value at risk ranges from approximately $15–18 trillion (Light) to $62–72 trillion (Aggressive). Predistributive mechanisms are proposed as structural solutions.
Research
8 June 2026

The progress report: Climate risk reporting in the U.S. insurance sector series

Ceres
This benchmark series assesses the quality and comprehensiveness of climate risk reporting by U.S. insurance companies against the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) framework. It tracks industry-wide reporting practices, disclosure maturity, governance, strategy, risk management, and metrics over time to evaluate progress in climate-related financial risk disclosure.
Benchmark/series
20 May 2026

Marsh

Other
Marsh is a global insurance broker and risk advisory firm that helps organisations identify, assess and manage complex risks. Through insurance broking, risk management, cybersecurity, climate risk, analytics and consulting services, Marsh supports businesses across industries in making informed decisions, building resilience and navigating regulatory, operational and financial challenges worldwide.
Organisation
1 research item

The hidden benefit of ESG

This study examines 2,386 U.S.-listed firms from 2016 to 2021 and finds a causal link between higher ESG scores and fewer financial statement restatements in the post-2019 Business Roundtable Statement period. The findings position ESG as a rational risk management tool and challenge the premise underlying anti-ESG legislation.
Research
9 March 2026

Trust, financial literacy, and financial behaviors: Shaping retirement security

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
This NBER working paper examines how trust in financial institutions and government programmes, and financial literacy, shape retirement security for Americans aged 50+. Using 2020 Health and Retirement Study data, it finds trust in financial institutions supports retirement saving, while trust in government programmes reduces private saving, with notable racial disparities.
Research
7 May 2026

Sustainable finance and corporate law: Lessons from the US

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)
This report analyses the trajectory of sustainable finance and corporate law in the US. It focuses on the SEC's proposed climate disclosure rule and California's state-level reporting mandates, examining the political and institutional challenges these initiatives face and the implications of a federalist approach for corporate compliance.
Research
9 April 2026

Socially-minded investors and corporate behavior

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)
This report examines whether socially-minded investors influence corporate behaviour through voting, managerial incentives, or identity investing. It concludes that existing channels offer limited impact and evaluates potential legal reforms, such as binding shareholder votes and mandatory disclosures, to better align corporate actions with these investors' preferences.
Research
30 April 2026

The European chemical sector's influence on biodiversity policy

InfluenceMap
This report analyses how major European chemical companies and industry associations influence biodiversity policy in the EU and US. It reveals that no assessed company aligns fully with science-based biodiversity goals, highlighting oppositional lobbying against critical regulations concerning pesticides, PFAS, and harmful chemicals.
Research
1 April 2026

Royal London Asset Management

Other
Royal London Asset Management (RLAM) is a UK-based asset manager providing investment solutions across equities, fixed income, multi-asset, property and cash. It integrates environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment decision-making and stewardship activities, offering responsible investment expertise, sustainable investing strategies, market insights and portfolio management services for institutional and intermediary clients worldwide.
Organisation
1 research item

Optional shareholder voting

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)
This paper examines optional shareholder voting by institutional managers (IMs) using newly available SEC data on say-on-pay votes. Only 44% of IMs vote, yet their aggregate voting footprint is twice that of mutual funds. IMs use voting as a monitoring tool, with larger positions associated with greater opposition to management.
Research
27 April 2026

Rankings of America's Most Just Companies

JUST Capital
The Rankings of America's Most Just Companies evaluate the largest publicly traded US corporations on stakeholder performance and ethical behaviour.
Online tool/database
17 March 2026

ImpactAlpha

Specialist News Services
ImpactAlpha is a subscription-based, independent global news and data platform focused on impact investing and sustainable finance.
Organisation
2 research items

Advancing extreme event impact attribution: Attributing multi-hazard impacts of Hurricane Ida in south Louisiana to past, present, and future climates

This report examines the impacts of Hurricane Ida in south Louisiana, using a multi-hazard framework to attribute economic damages to historical and projected climate change. It finds that total damages were 19% higher in 2021 due to historical climate change and could be 76% higher by 2071.
Research
21 May 2026

U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters database

Climate Central
Climate Central’s database tracks the most costly U.S. weather and climate disasters since 1980, providing data on events causing $1 billion in damage.
Online tool/database
22 October 2025

Flood risk, insurance, and housing in the United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
This research provides household-level estimates of flood risk exposure across socioeconomic groups in the US. It reveals that high-income households own a disproportionate share of floodplain property wealth, whilst a vulnerable subset of low-income, uninsured homeowners faces severe financial risks from flood damage and rising insurance premiums.
Research
7 May 2026

Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA)

Government Sponsored / Multilateral Organisations
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), part of World Bank Group, provides political risk insurance and credit enhancement guarantees to support foreign direct investment in developing countries. MIGA helps investors and lenders manage non-commercial risks, including political instability and contract breaches, while promoting sustainable economic development, infrastructure investment and private sector growth.
Organisation
1 research item
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