The report focuses on technology driven disruptions and their impacts on industrial agriculture. The study is built on the Seba Technology Disruption Framework set out in RethinkX’s 2017 report, Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030. The cost curves in the report are based on limited data given the stage of the application of these technologies in food markets, therefore, findings should read as beta analysis.

The second domestication of plants and animals

It is forecasted that the current industrialised animal-agriculture system will be replaced with a Food-as-Software model, where foods are engineered by scientists at a molecular level and uploaded to databases that can be accessed globally by food designers. Resulting in a more distributed, localised, stable, and resilient food-production system.

A revolution in food production is argued to be imminent. New technologies such as precision biology and precision fermentation will enable the manipulation of micro-organisms like bacteria, fungi and algae. Precision biology encompasses the information and biotechnologies necessary to design and program cells and organisms, including genetic engineering. Precision fermentation is the process that programs micro-organisms to produce complex organic molecules.

The disruption of the cow

The example of the cattle industry is applied to illustrate how disruptive modern foods will be. The cattle industry is argued to be an inefficient way to manufacture protein as it is very resource intensive, with large quantities of feed crops, land, water, and time dedicated to the production of animal-based products whereas modern foods will be about 10 times more efficient than a cow at converting feed into end products.

The report also mentions other social, economic and environmental benefits that occur from modern food industries. Modern foods are predicted to be cheaper and superior to animal-derived foods. The cost of modern food products will be half that of animal products and are argued to be more nutritious, tastier, and more convenient with much greater variety.

The collapse of livestock farming impacts

Cow products such as meat, milk, leather and collagen are being replaced by technologies, products, and services, enabled by the engineering of micro-organisms. Including new industries such as cell-based meat and dairy products produced through precision fermentation. This will have significant impacts for stakeholders in the current supply-chain including livestock farmers, abattoirs and tractor and specialised equipment manufacturers. The report anticipates that by 2035 livestock farming will only operate in artisanal, high-cost, niche areas.

The collapse of livestock farming opportunities

Wider economic benefits will accrue from the reduction in the cost of food in the form of increased disposable incomes and from the wealth, jobs, and taxes that come from modern food technologies. Environmental benefits are predicted to be significant with net greenhouse gas emissions from the sector falling by 45% by 2030. Other issues such as deforestation, species extinction, water scarcity, and aquatic pollution from animal waste, hormones, and antibiotics will also be reduced.

There are opportunities for businesses and investors to create wealth, for consumers to buy cheaper, healthier food, and for policymakers to enable economic, health, social, and environmental benefits.

1. Modern food products will be higher quality and cost less than half as much to produce as the animal-derived products they replace.
   
   
2. The aim of this report is to focus decision-makers’ attention on the scale, speed, and impact of modern food disruption. The choices they make in the near term will have a lasting impact, for example, on intellectual property rights and approval processes for modern food products.
   
3. Due to these rapid advancements, it has been predicted that by 2030 the demand for cow products will have fallen by 70%. Other livestock markets such as chicken, pig, and fish will follow a similar trajectory.
4. There are no geographical barriers to food and agriculture disruption, so if the United States (US) resists or fails to support the modern food industry, other countries such as China will capture the health, wealth, and jobs that accrue to those leading the way. Policymakers must, therefore, start planning for the modern food disruption in order to capture the extraordinary economic, social, and environmental benefits it has to offer.
   
   
5. Key findings of the report show that, at current prices revenues of the US beef and dairy industries and their suppliers, which together exceed $400bn today, will decline by at least 50% by 2030, and by nearly 90% by 2035.
   
   
6. Similarly, farmland values will collapse by 40%-80%. The outcome for individual regions and farms depends on alternative uses for the land, amenity value, and policy choices that are made.
   
7. There are wider environmental, social and economic associations such as direct US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cattle are estimated to drop by 60% by 2030, on course to almost 80% by 2035. Higher quality food will become cheaper and more accessible for everyone. The average US family will save more than $1,200 a year in food costs. This will keep an additional $100bn a year in Americans’ pockets by 2030.
   
   
8. It has been found that there will be enormous opportunities for businesses embracing new technologies to thrive. Companies designing microbes for protein production will dominate the food industry. Self-proclaimed ‘organism company’ Gingko Bioworks is working to build this future by designing custom micro-organisms to ‘replace technology with biology’ across multiple markets.