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Modeling ghost GDP: Macro-financial risk and diversified portfolios in the age of artificial intelligence, automation, and populism
This PDI working paper stress-tests four AI-driven labour displacement scenarios against US macro-financial data, modelling cascading losses across household debt, corporate credit, equities, pensions, insurance, and fiscal channels. Total economy-wide value at risk ranges from approximately $15–18 trillion (Light) to $62–72 trillion (Aggressive). Predistributive mechanisms are proposed as structural solutions.
National climate change risk assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand series
This benchmark series provides a comprehensive evaluation of climate change risks across Aotearoa New Zealand. It assesses vulnerabilities within the natural environment, built infrastructure, economy, society, and governance frameworks. The series serves as a critical resource for guiding long-term adaptation planning, resilient investment, and strategic policy development.
The progress report: Climate risk reporting in the U.S. insurance sector series
This benchmark series assesses the quality and comprehensiveness of climate risk reporting by U.S. insurance companies against the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) framework. It tracks industry-wide reporting practices, disclosure maturity, governance, strategy, risk management, and metrics over time to evaluate progress in climate-related financial risk disclosure.
Navigating global risks in the Pacific 2026
A Pacific-focused commentary drawing on the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026, examining how geopolitical fragmentation, digital transformation, climate volatility and workforce pressures are reshaping operating environments across Australia, New Zealand and the broader Pacific region.
Built to adapt: Inclusive financial institutions in a changing climate
This report explores how inclusive financial institutions can build climate resilience for themselves and their clients. It outlines strategies for risk assessment, innovative risk financing, and adapting product offerings. By adopting a mutually beneficial approach, providers can maintain their social mission while navigating intensifying climate impacts.
Study on national climate litigation
This report analyses strategic climate litigation trends across Europe, examining cases against states and corporations. It highlights key legal strategies, including human rights claims and polluter-pays mechanisms, while assessing the challenges of enforcing damages and the evolving obligations of governments and high-emitting businesses.
Sustainable asset valuation of mining closures in artisanal and small-scale gold mines in Marmato, Colombia: Nature-based infrastructure’s role in mining closure plans
This report assesses mine-closure strategies for artisanal and small-scale gold mining in Marmato, Colombia. Applying a systems-based valuation methodology, it highlights the economic and environmental benefits of progressive formalisation and closure, emphasising early risk reduction, physical stabilisation, and ecosystem rehabilitation to improve territorial safety.
Sheltering from oil shocks: Measures to reduce impacts on households and businesses
This International Energy Agency report outlines measures to reduce the impact of oil supply disruptions on households and businesses. It details short-term and structural strategies across road and air transport, industry, and cooking fuels to lower demand and shield vulnerable consumers from rising energy costs.
Employment and social trends: May 2026 update: Growing labour market risks of the Middle East crisis
This report analyses the global labour market risks of the Middle East crisis. It estimates significant potential declines in working hours and real labour incomes, highlighting heightened vulnerabilities in the Arab States and the Asia-Pacific region due to disrupted energy markets, supply chains, and transport routes.
Advancing extreme event impact attribution: Attributing multi-hazard impacts of Hurricane Ida in south Louisiana to past, present, and future climates
This report examines the impacts of Hurricane Ida in south Louisiana, using a multi-hazard framework to attribute economic damages to historical and projected climate change. It finds that total damages were 19% higher in 2021 due to historical climate change and could be 76% higher by 2071.
Climate Shift Index: Humid Heat
Climate Shift Index: Humid Heat tracks and calculates the influence of human-caused climate change on daily humid heat conditions across the globe.
Digitalisation and innovation: Opportunities and risks for financial health
This report examines the impact of digital innovation on financial health. It outlines opportunities in payments, credit, savings, and insurance, whilst highlighting emerging risks such as fraud, overindebtedness, and ill-suited investments. The authors propose policy responses to enhance regulatory frameworks and promote responsible digitalisation in financial services.
Finance for biodiversity data catalogue
The FfB Biodiversity Data Catalogue is an online tool designed to help financial institutions navigate the nature-related data landscape.
U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters database
Climate Central’s database tracks the most costly U.S. weather and climate disasters since 1980, providing data on events causing $1 billion in damage.
The impact of extreme temperatures on respiratory mortality in Brazil: Evaluating regional adaptations to different thermal environments
This report analyses the impact of extreme temperatures on respiratory mortality across 646 Brazilian municipalities from 2010 to 2020. Findings reveal a J-shaped exposure-response curve, with heat-related deaths dominating in tropical northern regions, whilst cold-related mortality predominates in the subtropical south, underscoring the need for region-specific climate adaptation policies.
Extreme heat risk governance: Framework and toolkit
This report presents a comprehensive framework and toolkit to help governments and stakeholders manage extreme heat risk. It provides actionable guidance, a maturity assessment tool, and strategies to operationalise governance and develop effective heat action plans across multiple sectors and timescales.