About this report
The report assesses how Australia’s large and expanding fossil fuel exports contribute to global warming and intensify domestic climate risks. It examines evidence on Australia’s export-related emissions, policy gaps, human and systemic impacts, and the actions required for an orderly, cooperative and just phase-out.
Introduction
Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and LNG. Exported emissions are three to four times domestic emissions, placing Australia 2nd globally for lifecycle emissions from fossil fuel exports. New projects continue to be approved, signalling unconstrained supply and weakening global climate ambition. Every increment of warming increases climate-driven risks within Australia.
Australia’s fossil fuel production and escalating climate change
Australia exports 91% of its black coal and 76% of its gas. Government forecasts show metallurgical coal exports rising, thermal coal remaining steady before peaking, and gas exports holding steady. Extraction-based and supply-chain emissions data place Australia among the top global contributors.
The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is small and existing fossil fuel infrastructure already exceeds this limit. Global plans project increased coal production to 2030 and oil and gas to 2050, inconsistent with the Paris Agreement. IPCC findings show that even 0.5°C of additional warming significantly increases extreme heat exposure, crop losses and water scarcity. Most Australian fossil fuel exports go to high-income countries, raising equity considerations.
Australia’s missing policy setting restrictions on fossil fuel exports
Australia has no national policy to cap, limit or restrict fossil fuel production for export. Existing domestic climate policies scarcely address exported emissions. The Safeguard Mechanism excludes most downstream emissions, and the EPBC Act does not explicitly require assessment of climate impacts, creating a regulatory gap. Fossil fuel subsidies reached AU$14.5bn in 2023–24, and numerous new projects are in development. Economic analysis indicates that reducing Australian supply would not simply be replaced elsewhere; instead, reduced supply would likely raise prices and reduce global demand.
Escalating risks for people in Australia from every fractional increase in warming
Australia has warmed by 1.47°C since 1910. Extreme heat, flash droughts, bushfires, storms, intense rainfall, cyclones and sea-level rise are all increasing. Vulnerable groups—including Indigenous communities, low-income households, the elderly and outdoor workers—face heightened exposure. Core systems such as health, energy, water, infrastructure, food production and insurance are increasingly at risk. Compound extremes, such as the 2019–20 bushfires and 2023 Queensland events, demonstrate cascading disruptions. Adaptation remains essential but has limits, with some hazards—such as major floods in Lismore—exceeding feasible protective measures.
A national fossil fuel exports phase-out plan for Australia
The report concludes Australia must adopt a managed phase-out of fossil fuel production for export. Recommended actions include halting new project approvals; amending the EPBC Act to require climate impact assessment; legislating targets and timelines; and requiring exporters to disclose downstream emissions and undertake human rights due diligence. Australia’s economy is diverse and only modestly reliant on fossil fuel revenue. Coordinated transition planning with major buyer nations and robust support for affected workers, Indigenous communities and landholders is essential for a just transition.
