Library | ESG issues
Public Policy
Public policy refers to the actions and decisions taken by governments to address societal issues through laws, regulations, and funding priorities. It shapes the business environment by influencing regulatory requirements, market conditions, and corporate responsibilities. Policies related to taxation, labour laws, environmental regulations, and trade agreements can impact business operations, costs, and investment strategies.
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Modeling ghost GDP: Macro-financial risk and diversified portfolios in the age of artificial intelligence, automation, and populism
This PDI working paper stress-tests four AI-driven labour displacement scenarios against US macro-financial data, modelling cascading losses across household debt, corporate credit, equities, pensions, insurance, and fiscal channels. Total economy-wide value at risk ranges from approximately $15–18 trillion (Light) to $62–72 trillion (Aggressive). Predistributive mechanisms are proposed as structural solutions.
Update on China's climate policy from the 2026 two sessions: How Chinese companies and industry are shaping the energy transition agenda
This report analyses corporate engagement in China's climate and energy policy during the 2026 Two Sessions. It outlines the 15th Five-Year Plan's carbon intensity reduction target and examines how the oil, gas, new energy, and automotive sectors are influencing the nation's decarbonisation and energy transition agenda.
The growth of dual-use by design research in Europe: Export control risks and challenges
This report explores how increased funding for 'dual-use by design' research in Europe blurs the line between civilian and military ecosystems. It highlights proliferation risks and identifies challenges for export controls, arguing for a broader, integrated governance framework to safeguard international research collaboration and security.
Reining in big tech corporations: Why platform governance requires structural regulation
This paper argues that big tech platform corporations function as state-empowered artificial legal entities rather than private contractual arrangements. Highlighting their structural and governance power, the author suggests that these organisations require structural regulation and democratic oversight to recalibrate the delegated powers granted by states.
ASCOR Tool
The ASCOR Tool is an investor-led framework for assessing how countries manage the low-carbon transition and the impacts of climate change.
The impact of extreme temperatures on respiratory mortality in Brazil: Evaluating regional adaptations to different thermal environments
This report analyses the impact of extreme temperatures on respiratory mortality across 646 Brazilian municipalities from 2010 to 2020. Findings reveal a J-shaped exposure-response curve, with heat-related deaths dominating in tropical northern regions, whilst cold-related mortality predominates in the subtropical south, underscoring the need for region-specific climate adaptation policies.
Market-shaping states: A new theory of public sector capacities and capabilities
This report introduces a market-shaping theory of the public sector, arguing that governments must act as proactive co-creators of public value. It presents a three-layered framework of structural capacities, organisational routines, and dynamic capabilities to help states navigate socio-technical challenges, steer innovation, and drive sustainable societal transformations.
Leaning on uncertainty: Are European countries overrelying on carbon removals to reach climate targets?
This report analyses the climate strategies of six European countries and the European Commission, revealing a risky overreliance on unproven carbon dioxide removal technologies. It highlights fragmented planning, absent feasibility assessments, and policies contradicting scientific advice, warning that current approaches threaten effective climate action.
Mobilising trade associations as a force for good: A playbook for companies
This playbook outlines a five-step framework for companies to manage their indirect policy engagement through trade associations. It provides guidance on articulating science-based climate policy priorities, assessing association alignment, engaging to drive improvement, and rigorously reviewing memberships to ensure they support corporate sustainability targets.
Fiscal policy and transition risk
This report uses an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyse how climate policies interact with pre-existing labour and capital taxes. It finds that transition risks depend on policy design, financing choices, and financial frictions, highlighting critical differences between carbon taxes and abatement subsidies.
Tax Incentives in national investment laws: Bridging the gap between tax and investment policy-makers
This report analyses how tax incentives are embedded and governed within national investment laws across emerging markets and developing economies. It highlights coordination gaps between investment and tax authorities, the dominance of tax holidays, and the need for stronger anti-cumulation safeguards to prevent unintended revenue losses.
Integrating climate considerations into environmental impact assessments: Lessons from Latin America and Asia
This report analyses the integration of climate change considerations into environmental impact assessment (EIA) regimes across 20 economies in Latin America and Asia. It evaluates legislative frameworks and climate litigation trends, recommending stronger statutory requirements, detailed technical guidance, and comprehensive assessments of both emissions and adaptation risks.
What can investors do about climate change?
This report explores the evolving role of investors in addressing climate change. Drawing on insights from major asset managers, it advocates shifting from market-led targets to a policy-led approach. Investors are advised to focus on realistic stewardship, pragmatic objective-setting, and policy advocacy to effectively manage climate-related financial risks.
Acceleration is not a strategy: A framework for directing AI towards public value before it's too late
This report outlines a framework for European governments to steer artificial intelligence towards public value rather than just accelerating sector growth. It recommends implementing AI directionism by targeting high-impact uses, preparing priority sectors for adoption, curbing big tech monopolies, and ensuring the economic benefits are broadly shared.
Reforming investment contracts: Why policy - makers must act now — and how
This policy brief highlights the urgent need to reform investor–state contracts to support sustainable development. It explores how fragmented frameworks, outdated stabilisation clauses, and tax incentives undermine national laws. The report recommends strengthening interministerial coordination, assessing existing contracts, and developing national model agreements to improve transparency and policy coherence.
24/7 renewables: The economics of firm solar and wind
This report analyses the transition to reliable, round-the-clock renewable energy through solar, wind, and battery storage. Introducing the firm levelised cost of electricity (F-LCOE), it evaluates the cost-competitiveness of hybrid systems against fossil fuels and outlines the necessary policy reforms to support widespread deployment.
