Introduction

The report examines the challenges and opportunities of implementing early warning systems (EWS) in fragile, conflict-affected, and violent (FCV) contexts. It highlights that 130 million people globally lack access to EWS, with many located in least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS). Among the 25 countries most at risk from climate change, 19 face significant fragility or conflict. The Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative aims to provide global EWS coverage by 2027, with a focus on “last-mile” communities. This document aligns with global frameworks like the Paris Agreement and Sendai Framework, emphasising multi-stakeholder collaboration to address gaps and build resilience in FCV regions.

Cross-cutting elements, enablers, and approaches

Governance in FCV contexts requires engagement with diverse actors, including non-state armed groups, peacebuilding organisations, and regional bodies, to establish trusted intermediaries. Coordination challenges arise from fragmented authority, necessitating parallel systems and partnerships. For example, working with military actors can leverage logistical capabilities but requires strict adherence to international humanitarian law to avoid exacerbating conflicts. Regional initiatives, like the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, demonstrate the importance of leveraging regional resources.

Finance remains limited; countries affected by conflict receive one-third less climate finance per capita than non-FCV nations. The report highlights mechanisms like crisis modifiers and earmarked funding, which offer innovative approaches for sustainable financing. Pooled funds and long-term investments are recommended to bridge financial gaps. Technology, including remote sensing, mobile broadcasts, and artificial intelligence, has great potential but requires infrastructure investment to ensure usability in FCV contexts.

Pillar considerations

Disaster risk knowledge

Understanding hazards, vulnerabilities, and capacities is constrained by limited data and access in FCV settings. Conflict-sensitive approaches are needed to integrate local knowledge and avoid harm. Partnerships for data storage and access, such as external servers, are critical in conflict zones to preserve institutional memory. Tools like OpenStreetMap support mapping efforts, while layered risk assessments account for compounded vulnerabilities, particularly for displaced populations. Retrospective disaster analysis, such as the study of compound impacts in Honduras after Tropical Storms Eta and Iota, underscores the importance of multi-hazard assessments.

Detection, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting

Monitoring and forecasting are hindered by limited resources, damaged infrastructure, and access issues. The 39 countries classified as fragile or conflict-affected meet only 7 of the 579 mandated GBON surface observation points, illustrating significant data gaps. Solutions include partnerships with regional centres and using remote sensing and community-based systems. Initiatives like SOFF in South Sudan demonstrate phased investments and peer-to-peer support to strengthen institutional capacity and data collection.

Warning dissemination and communication

Dissemination challenges include communication blackouts, mistrust, and the mobility of displaced populations. Parallel warning systems are often required in regions controlled by different actors. Community-based warning systems, like those in Papua New Guinea, integrate traditional methods (e.g., drums) with mobile alerts. Messaging must be conflict-sensitive, trauma-informed, and co-produced with communities to ensure trust. Leveraging mobile broadcasting and location-based services can increase reach, though infrastructure fragility may limit their effectiveness.

Preparedness and response capabilities

Preparedness measures must address natural and conflict-related hazards. Public awareness campaigns should integrate local knowledge and cultural norms, as shown in Papua New Guinea, where Indigenous warning tools were linked with modern communication. Gender-sensitive and inclusive approaches are vital. Testing public response mechanisms must be conflict-sensitive to avoid escalating tensions or mistrust. Examples like the Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme demonstrate the value of volunteer-based strategies for effective early action.

Conclusion

The report underscores the critical need for expanded EWS in FCV contexts to address climate and disaster risks. Conflict analysis and peacebuilding strategies must be integrated into EWS design to enhance functionality and trust. Recent declarations at COP 28 signal growing political commitment to allocate resources for FCV-specific EWS. Increased funding, regional cooperation, and community-driven approaches are essential to building resilience. Addressing significant data gaps, such as the low compliance rate for GBON observations, is crucial for improving forecasting capabilities and ensuring vulnerable populations are protected.