Introduction
The report explores the concept of strategic foresight in addressing the interconnected crises of the 21st century, termed a “polycrisis.” These crises include climate-related disasters, pandemics, geopolitical instability, and the rapid commercialisation of artificial intelligence. Traditional planning methods, which rely heavily on linear projections from dominant trends, often fail to anticipate unexpected developments. The study investigates whether emerging trends, manifesting as weak signals, can serve as conduits for systemic disruption.
Materials and methods
The study employed a mixed-methods design, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. A global Delphi survey, with 790 respondents from 132 countries, generated 1200 horizon-scan items. These were coded into 29 clusters, and scenario stress-testing distilled them into 280 candidate weak signals. From these, 20 were shortlisted and mapped onto an influence matrix through expert debate. The analysis identified statistically significant hubs, suggesting that anticipatory governance can be strengthened by prioritising high-centrality signals and institutionalising ongoing weak-signal scanning.
Results
The study identified eight critical shifts and 20 weak signals of change, clustered into five groups: human health, economic implications, governance, technological developments, and biophysical dynamics. Key signals include the release of ancient microorganisms due to Arctic warming, surging fossil fuel subsidies, and the detachment of decision-making from scientific evidence. These signals have the potential to significantly impact planetary health and human wellbeing.
Human health
Five signals relate to human health, including the release of ancient microorganisms and the rise of antimicrobial resistance. These signals highlight the need for proactive surveillance and improved data quality, particularly in the global south, where health data quality remains a challenge.
Economic implications
Four signals have economic implications, such as the uninsurable future due to extreme events and surging fossil fuel subsidies. These signals underscore the need for reforms in global financial systems and the development of supportive regulations and risk-sharing frameworks.
Governance
Five signals pertain to governance, including the emergence of exnovation and local, network-driven resilience. These signals suggest that enhancing transparency and diversifying advisory systems can mitigate negative system-wide effects.
Technological developments
Four signals relate to technological developments, such as the deployment of AI-enabled autonomous systems and solar radiation modification technologies. These signals highlight the need for comprehensive governance frameworks to mitigate potential negative impacts.
Biophysical dynamics
The final signal, uninhabitable places, denotes biophysical dynamics precipitated by climate change-induced extreme conditions. This signal underscores the need for proactive measures to address the habitability of affected areas.
Discussion and conclusion
The study highlights the importance of integrating weak-signal analysis into strategic foresight frameworks to enhance systemic resilience. By identifying super-nodes that function as systemic accelerants of change, decision-makers can better anticipate and respond to emerging risks. The report recommends institutionalising continuous weak-signal monitoring and developing cross-agency learning platforms to translate foresight insights into coordinated policies. Despite its limitations, the study underscores the value of weak-signal analysis as a strategic tool for identifying leverage points and guiding proactive interventions in an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
