Mihi

The report opens by emphasising shared responsibility for protecting Aotearoa New Zealand’s environment for future generations, recognising the connection between people, land, water and climate.

Whakatauki

Proverbs are used to highlight the need to sustain land, oceans and human wellbeing, reinforcing the interdependence of natural systems and communities.

Co-chairs letter

The co-chairs outline how climate change is already affecting rural communities, referencing events such as Cyclone Gabrielle. They highlight increasing extremes—droughts, heavy rain, heat and cold—and the need for urgent, sector-wide adaptation. The letter stresses the value of scenario analysis, collaboration across supply chains, and integrating Māori values, particularly Te Taiao and kaitiakitanga, into responses.

Project governance

The project was overseen by co-chairs, a Leadership Group of industry representatives, and a Technical Expert Group comprising experts in climate science, agriculture and sustainable finance. PwC New Zealand acted as secretariat, facilitating scenario development and the adaptation roadmap.

Key concepts and definitions

Key terms include kaitiakitanga (guardianship), mauri (life force), regenerative agriculture, sustainable finance, and resilience. Protein diversification and sustainable farming practices are positioned as important components of future systems.

Context and objectives

Agriculture contributes $55bn in export revenue, accounts for 81.4% of trade and remains vulnerable to extreme weather. The report notes alignment with the National Adaptation Plan and mandatory Climate-related Disclosures. Key objectives include translating climate projections into sector implications, identifying barriers to adaptation, and prioritising actions to build resilience.

Te Ao Māori framework

Te Ao Māori principles underpin scenario development, emphasising relationships between land, people and food. The Mana Kai framework articulates interconnected pillars including mana o te whenua (environment), mana kai (food) and mana o te tangata (people). The report calls for moving from passive guardianship to proactive protection—“from manaia to taniwha”.

Agriculture sector scenarios – introduction and guide

Scenario analysis is used to assess sector resilience under uncertainty. Scenarios must be plausible, decision-relevant and challenging. Six drivers of change are identified: environmental, markets, policy, social, technology and land use. Physical risks include water stress, pest incursions and reduced productivity; transition risks include misaligned policy, changing consumer preferences and reduced market access.

Agriculture sector scenarios

Three scenarios are presented:

Tū-ā-pae (Orderly): Strong early action limits warming to 1.6°C by 2050. Emissions fall to 6 Mt CO₂-e. Dairy and livestock herds reduce by 30% and 22%, while horticulture and arable land increases by 34% and native forestry expands by 704%. Regenerative practices, sustainable finance tools and inclusive land-use policies support resilience.

Tū-ā-hopo (Disorderly): Delayed action triggers abrupt transition after 2030. Warming reaches 2°C. Operating costs rise as regulation tightens. Export markets shrink due to carbon border adjustments. Livestock herds decline by ~17–19%. Adaptation remains piecemeal; biodiversity loss grows and access to finance becomes uneven.

Tū-ā-tapape (Hothouse): No additional policy action and emissions continue rising, reaching 40 Mt CO₂-e domestically and 103 Gt globally. Warming reaches 2.5°C by 2050 and physical impacts dominate. Frequent floods, droughts, heat events and pest incursions reduce yields and undermine viability. Food security takes precedence over sustainability, and some regions face farm abandonment.

The regions will be inequitably affected by climate change

Regional case studies (Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne, Canterbury) show varying exposure to extreme heat, reduced precipitation, water stress and financial risks. All regions face increased volatility, with horticulture, broad acre cropping, dairy and livestock systems particularly affected.