Key concepts and definitions

The report distinguishes physical climate risks—such as increased drought, flooding, glacier retreat and reduced snowfall—from transition risks associated with policy, technology, markets and social expectations. Physical risks include reduced productivity, volatility in production, water stress, difficulty accessing finance, and greater pest and disease exposure. Transition risks include misaligned policy, inability to keep pace with technological change, loss of mauri and identity in rural communities, failure to meet consumer preferences, and reduced access to key markets.

Context and objectives

The agriculture sector faces increasing disruption from climate change, reflected in recent New Zealand events such as flooding, drought and cyclone impacts. The report aims to translate climate and socioeconomic projections into operational implications; identify adaptation barriers; and highlight opportunities and actions. It supports the 2022 National Adaptation Plan and aligns with the External Reporting Board’s requirements for climate-related disclosures.
Three objectives frame the work: producing sector-relevant climate scenarios; clarifying challenges to adaptation; and providing a practical roadmap prioritising high-impact actions.

Te ao māori framework

The framework emphasises interconnectedness between people, land, water and food systems, highlighting the depletion of mauri and the need for restoration. Taniwha and manaia are used symbolically to represent active guardianship and transformation. Guiding principles from Te Taiao reinforce the need for sector decisions that enhance the natural world and embed indigenous knowledge into adaptation planning.

Agriculture sector scenarios

Scenario development was undertaken through Technical Expert Group workshops using physical and transition risk assessments aligned with the NGFS framework.
Three scenarios explore plausible futures:
Tū-ā-pae (Orderly): A coordinated transition to net-zero CO₂ by 2050 with diversified protein and warming limited to 1.5°C.
Tū-ā-hopo (Disorderly): Weak action until 2030 followed by a rapid, disruptive shift, with warming around 2°C and high policy and cost uncertainties.
Tū-ā-tapape (Hothouse): No new policies, continued emissions growth and significant physical impacts, with warming on track for 3°C.
Key indicators include projected glacier retreat (up to –32%), increased extreme heat days (up to +30), declining snowfall (–10 to –20 days by 2040), and rising sea levels (0.22–0.32m by 2050).
Critical elements for adaptation include the importance of people and communities, water security, changing consumer attitudes, integrated land-use planning, access to capital and insurance, and the balance between food production, biodiversity and sequestration.

Adaptation roadmap

The roadmap responds to identified risks by outlining five goals: enhanced knowledge and capability; effective investment; strategic use of data and technology; industry-led innovation; and collaborative, resilient leadership.
Actions focus on improving availability of adaptation knowledge, developing educational resources and using data to support decision-making. Forward planning for water use is emphasised. Effective investment requires governance to direct capital towards adaptation, innovation and diversification.
Technology-focused actions include improving data integration, assessment tools and access to innovative genetic and ecosystem-service solutions.
The roadmap highlights the need for sector collaboration, a coherent sector voice and leadership embracing diverse perspectives. Stakeholders—including iwi, hapū, Māori agribusinesses, government and industry—are identified for each action.
Priority challenges include preparing for land-use change, maintaining food security, supporting labour and capability development, managing international market volatility, and strengthening supply chain resilience.

Appendices

The appendices describe the project approach, including workshops held between June and October 2022 covering risk identification, scenario building, impact assessment and roadmap development. Methods draw on TCFD guidance and ISO14090 standards, integrating national and global climate data sources.