Overview
The AR5 Scenario Database is an online repository of long-term climate and socio-economic scenarios reviewed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Working Group III. It aggregates modelled pathways from integrated assessment and energy system models to support comparative analysis. Finance professionals can use it to examine plausible future emissions, energy and policy outcomes relevant for risk assessment and strategic planning. The database is publicly accessible for research and analysis.
Organisation behind the tool
The database is administered by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) on behalf of the IPCC Working Group III, with scenarios collected via the Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium (IAMC). It was developed to support the AR5 assessment process.
What the tool does
- Provides access to a repository of long-term scenarios assessed in the IPCC AR5.
- Includes close to 1,200 scenarios from over 30 integrated assessment and energy system models.
- Allows users to explore individual scenario data, including emissions, socio-economic variables and energy system results.
- Offers downloadable scenario classifications and metadata.
- Scenarios are grouped by outcome categories, such as radiative forcing, technology assumptions and policy contexts.
Target audience
The primary audience includes researchers, climate analysts and policy specialists working on climate mitigation and adaptation. The database is also relevant to academics, model developers, decision-makers and other professionals requiring quantitative scenario data.
Relevance to finance professionals
- Risk assessment – Enables evaluation of long-term climate transition risks under varied emissions and policy pathways.
- ESG analysis – Supports environmental component analysis through scenario projections of greenhouse gas emissions and energy shifts.
- Market/commodity insights – Provides context on future energy systems and emissions that may influence energy markets and commodity demand.
- Investment context – Offers scenario benchmarks for climate-aligned investment strategies and long-term economic planning under different mitigation assumptions.
