The Emissions Gap Report: Off Target is the sixteenth edition of UNEP’s annual assessment of the difference between countries’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges and the reductions required to limit global warming to the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. The 2025 edition coincides with the ten-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement and the submission cycle for new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with 2035 mitigation targets.

• Global GHG emissions reached a record 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024, a 2.3% increase from 2023, driven by increases across all major sectors and gases, with deforestation and land-use change (LULUCF) responsible for 53% of the overall increase.
• Only 60 parties, covering 63% of global emissions, submitted or announced new NDCs with 2035 mitigation targets by 30 September 2025; none of the G20 members strengthened their 2030 targets.
• The new NDCs narrow the 2035 emissions gap compared to the previous year’s assessment, but large gaps remain: full implementation of unconditional NDCs leaves a gap of ~12 GtCO₂e with 2°C pathways and ~23 GtCO₂e with 1.5°C pathways.
• Based on current policies, the world is heading for up to 2.8°C of warming; full implementation of conditional NDCs and all net-zero pledges would limit peak warming to 1.9°C (66% chance).
• The report finds that exceedance of the 1.5°C limit is increasingly near and that 1.5°C pathways now entail greater temporary temperature overshoot, increasing reliance on uncertain, costly, and risky carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies.

The report calls for immediate, unprecedented emission reductions by all nations — particularly G20 members — and stresses that every fraction of a degree of avoided warming matters for limiting climate damages, tipping point risks, and CDR dependence.