Nourish and flourish: Water solutions to feed 10 billion people on a livable planet
This World Bank report outlines transforming agricultural water management to feed 10 billion people sustainably. It introduces a water-food nexus framework, highlights inefficiencies in current systems, and emphasises data-driven, service-oriented irrigation and financing reforms to improve productivity, resilience, and environmental outcomes.
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OVERVIEW
Introduction
The report highlights that current agricultural water management (AWM) systems can sustainably feed only 3.4 billion people, far below the projected 10 billion by 2050. It identifies imbalances in water use, with overuse in some regions and underuse in others. AWM, encompassing green and blue water, is reframed as a system delivering benefits across people, prosperity, and planet. Irrigation can significantly increase yields and resilience, with irrigated land producing 40% of global food on 22.7% of arable land. However, poor data quality and fragmented governance constrain effective policy. The report emphasises improved data, institutional coordination, and targeted investments to enhance productivity and sustainability.
Rethinking agricultural water management
AWM investments generate economic, social, and environmental returns, including up to US$4 in economic benefits per US$1 invested and the potential to create 245 million jobs globally. Three shifts are required: embracing system complexity, transitioning from infrastructure-led approaches to service delivery, and improving data use. The report stresses the role of private sector participation, regulatory reform, and performance-based systems to ensure cost recovery and efficiency. Technological innovation, including remote sensing and artificial intelligence, enables real-time monitoring and improved decision-making. Smallholder-focused approaches, such as farmer-led irrigation, are critical, given their role in global food production.
Framework for regional strategies
The report introduces a water-food nexus framework categorising countries by water stress and food trade status. Four contexts guide policy pathways: water-secure importers, water-secure exporters, water-stressed exporters, and water-stressed importers. Each requires tailored strategies, such as expanding irrigation in water-secure regions or reducing water use and shifting production in stressed regions. The framework supports balancing food security, water sustainability, and economic development. It highlights trade-offs, including reliance on imports versus domestic production, and emphasises aligning AWM strategies with local conditions and global markets.
Funding and policy development
Transforming AWM requires US$600 billion to US$1.8 trillion in investment by 2050, yet existing agricultural subsidies (approximately US$490 billion annually) could be repurposed to bridge financing gaps. The report advocates shifting from fragmented public funding to blended finance models involving private capital, public-private partnerships, and improved cost recovery mechanisms. Sustainable financing depends on reliable revenue streams and regulatory frameworks. A structured policy process is recommended, including baseline diagnostics, cross-sector coordination, performance-based delivery, and diversified financing. Policies should prioritise productivity gains, support smallholders’ access to finance, strengthen institutions, enforce water allocation, and promote water-efficient technologies and diets.
Conclusion
The report concludes that modest adjustments are insufficient; systemic transformation in AWM is required. Strategic irrigation use, improved governance, and better alignment of incentives can increase yields, create jobs, and reduce environmental pressures. Coordinated action across governments, private sector, and financial actors is essential to deliver sustainable water services and ensure food security while maintaining ecological limits.