Library | ESG issues
Systemic Risk Management
Systemic risk refers to the possibility that an event at the company level could trigger severe instability or collapse in an entire industry or economy. It extends beyond individual failures, encompassing large-scale threats such as climate change, natural disasters, inflation, geopolitical crises, and pandemics. Effective systemic risk management requires proactive monitoring, regulatory safeguards, and resilience strategies to mitigate risks and ensure financial stability in an increasingly complex and uncertain global landscape.
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How certain can we be about NGFS Climate Scenarios?
This research analyses uncertainty in Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) climate scenarios across four vintages and 254 variables. It finds that revisions to initial conditions and model recalibration often exceed scenario and model uncertainty, requiring cautious interpretation in financial risk assessments.
Business-led blended finance: A practical playbook
This report examines business-led blended finance, which grew to US$24 billion in 2024. It provides a practical playbook for companies to move from passive recipients to active deal architects, addressing the US$4 trillion SDG financing gap through risk management toolkits, sector analyses, and eight global case studies.
The climate premium on commercial real estate insurance
This report analyses rising insurance costs in the United States commercial real estate sector. It finds that premiums have surged 154% since 2017, driven by climate risk and reinsurance trends. High-risk markets face significant valuation erosion, with multi-family properties particularly impacted by increased financial burdens and pricing volatility.
ENCORE Insights: Country Dashboard
The ENCORE Insights: Country Dashboard is an interactive tool that maps how national economies and sectors depend on nature. Developed by Global Canopy, it helps finance professionals and regulators assess macroeconomic risks associated with nature degradation and ecosystem service dependencies.
Cyber risk stress testing for banks
This report examines cyber risk stress testing for banks, contrasting system-focused and firm-focused approaches. Drawing on exercises by the Bank of England, the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority, and the European Central Bank, it outlines scenario design, operational resilience, and the role of disclosure in establishing best practices.
Navigating towards water resilience: An introductory guide for central bankers, financial supervisors and regulators
This WWF Greening Financial Regulation Initiative guide introduces central banks, financial supervisors and regulators to the financial risks posed by the global water crisis. It covers physical, transition and systemic risks, emerging responses from the financial sector, available assessment tools, and policy recommendations for integrating water risks into supervisory frameworks.
How a surge in defence and dual-use technology investment could reconfigure the global AI race
This Chatham House paper examines four trends — rising defence and dual-use investment, the growth of 'patriotic tech', the push for sovereign AI, and concerns over an AI valuation bubble — that could multipolarise the global AI race, and offers recommendations for private sector preparedness.
Applying planetary boundaries: Effective risk management and value creation
This report examines how the Planetary Boundaries Framework translates nine critical global processes into material risks and value creation opportunities for investors and corporates. Seven of nine boundaries have already been breached. Tools, frameworks, and an investor engagement plan are outlined to support Earth-system-aligned capital allocation and long-term value creation.
An expanding mandate: A systems-level framework for asset management
This report from the Thinking Ahead Institute and CAIA Association argues for expanding the investment mandate to incorporate systems-level thinking. Drawing on a survey of 176 asset managers and roundtables with 120 senior executives, it presents an inside-out, outside-in framework for navigating polycrisis and long-term systemic risks.
TIIP: The Investment Integration Project
TIIP develops tools and advisory services for system-level investing, helping institutional investors manage systemic risks related to climate change and inequality.
Biodiversity loss will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations
This study examines how biodiversity and ecosystem service loss affect sovereign creditworthiness across 23 countries. Using ecological-economic modelling, it finds that a partial ecosystem collapse could generate US$162 billion in additional annual debt servicing costs globally, highlighting that sovereign credit ratings are systematically underpricing nature-related financial risks.
Stablecoins in Africa: Translating global principles into local regulatory practice
This paper is the African Chapter of GDF's Global Stablecoin Regulatory Playbook. It examines how global stablecoin regulatory principles can be applied across Africa's diverse markets, addressing reserve management, consumer protection, AML/CFT compliance, and cross-border coordination, while accounting for local financial infrastructure, dollarisation risks, and varying supervisory capacity.
Leading the charge: Turning risk into reward with a circular economy for EV batteries and critical minerals
This report by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation examines systemic risks in the EV battery value chain and sets out a circular economy framework, identifying five bright spots — battery design, rightsizing, circular business models, regional infrastructure, and data transparency — to build resilience and reduce critical mineral demand.
Modeling ghost GDP: Macro-financial risk and diversified portfolios in the age of artificial intelligence, automation, and populism
This PDI working paper stress-tests four AI-driven labour displacement scenarios against US macro-financial data, modelling cascading losses across household debt, corporate credit, equities, pensions, insurance, and fiscal channels. Total economy-wide value at risk ranges from approximately $15–18 trillion (Light) to $62–72 trillion (Aggressive). Predistributive mechanisms are proposed as structural solutions.
National climate change risk assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand series
This benchmark series provides a comprehensive evaluation of climate change risks across Aotearoa New Zealand. It assesses vulnerabilities within the natural environment, built infrastructure, economy, society, and governance frameworks. The series serves as a critical resource for guiding long-term adaptation planning, resilient investment, and strategic policy development.
Navigating global risks in the Pacific 2026
A Pacific-focused commentary drawing on the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026, examining how geopolitical fragmentation, digital transformation, climate volatility and workforce pressures are reshaping operating environments across Australia, New Zealand and the broader Pacific region.
