Demand

Global coal demand reached 8 805 Mt in 2024, up 1.5% year-on-year, with China and India accounting for 71% of consumption. In 2025, demand rises 0.5% to 8.85 billion tonnes. Thereafter, it plateaus and declines 3% by 2030, returning to around 2023 levels.

Power generation remains the dominant use. However, rapid renewable expansion, steady nuclear growth and rising LNG supply constrain coal’s share. Industrial coal use declines by less than 1% annually, partly offset by coal gasification, mainly in China.

India is the principal growth market. Total demand increases 17% to 1 522 Mt by 2030. Non-power coal rises from 356 Mt in 2025 to 470 Mt in 2030, supported by industrial expansion and government backing for 100 Mtpa of coal gasification, including USD 7 billion in incentives.

In the United States, demand reaches 410 Mt in 2025, with coal providing around 800 TWh, or 17% of electricity. Federal support, including emergency powers and USD 625 million for plant modernisation, slows plant retirements. Nonetheless, demand declines by an average 6% annually to 2030.

Supply

Global coal production remains close to its 2024 record in 2025, then declines gradually to 7 556 Mt by 2030, a 1.1% average annual fall from 2025. China’s output rises 1% in 2025 before decreasing to 3 845 Mt by 2030.

India records the strongest supply growth, with thermal coal production rising from 1 083 Mt in 2025 to 1 276 Mt in 2030. Indonesia’s production falls from 771 Mt to 665 Mt over the same period.

US production increases to 408 Mt in 2025 before declining to 324 Mt by 2030. South Africa remains broadly stable at 234 Mt in 2025, easing slightly to 228 Mt by 2030 as infrastructure reforms offset structural decline.

Trade

International coal trade reached a record 1 544 Mt in 2024, equal to 18% of global demand. Trade falls by around 5% in 2025 and declines to 1 304 Mt by 2030, a 2.4% average annual contraction from 2025.

Thermal coal trade decreases to 936 Mt by 2030, reflecting lower imports in China and India and a 69% reduction in EU imports to 9 Mt. Indonesia’s exports fall from 505 Mt in 2025 to 368 Mt in 2030. Australia’s total exports decline to 352 Mt.

Metallurgical coal is more resilient. Global trade returns to 368 Mt by 2030, close to 2024 levels. India’s met coal imports increase from 76 Mt in 2025 to 104 Mt in 2030, offsetting declines in China, Japan and Korea.

Prices and costs

Coal prices eased through 2024–2025 after peaks in 2021–2022. In 2025, thermal coal prices are around 10% lower in Europe and 20% lower in Asia compared with 2024. Prices are moving closer to supply costs, compressing margins.

Around 300 bcm of new LNG liquefaction capacity expected by 2030 may further pressure coal demand and prices. Mergers and acquisitions activity has slowed markedly since 2024 as profitability weakened.

Investments in coal projects and emissions abatement

Investment signals are mixed. Policy support in the United States and India encourages retrofits, gasification and selective capacity additions. However, phase-out strategies in advanced economies, lower prices and declining demand limit new mine development.

Slower deployment of low-carbon steel technologies supports the medium-term outlook for metallurgical coal exporters, particularly Australia, though longer-term decarbonisation goals constrain expansion.