This report delves into the potential disruptions generative AI presents for the American workforce, particularly its capacity to automate tasks across a broad range of occupations, especially middle- and high-wage, nonroutine roles. Generative AI, exemplified by models like ChatGPT, has rapidly become a transformative technology, offering significant productivity gains but also raising serious employment concerns. Over 30% of workers may experience 50% of their tasks impacted by AI, with particular exposure in cognitive, non-manual roles previously considered secure from automation.

What is at stake?

Generative AI poses considerable challenges and opportunities. Unlike traditional automation, which primarily impacted routine blue-collar roles, generative AI affects tasks requiring cognitive skills, such as writing, data analysis, and decision-making. Consequently, higher-paid professions like finance, law, and computer science face substantial changes, with some jobs potentially seeing task efficiency gains of up to 50%. However, existing frameworks and policies are inadequate to address this shift, placing workers at risk of dislocation and widening income inequality. Worker engagement and regulatory guidance are recommended to steer AI’s influence towards positive outcomes.

Not your grandparents’ automation

The disruption from generative AI differs significantly from past technological advancements. While traditional automation streamlined manual and routine tasks, AI threatens complex roles that involve creativity, communication, and decision-making. For example, AI can already autonomously generate code, analyse documents, and provide legal and medical advice. It is expected to replace or enhance tasks in roles that require these skills, placing greater pressure on sectors like business and finance to adapt. Importantly, women, who are often in administrative and clerical jobs, represent a large portion of workers exposed to high automation potential, suggesting potential gender-related workforce impacts.

Looking ahead: Potential widespread effects

Generative AI’s broad reach means that over 85% of jobs will see at least 10% of tasks disrupted, with middle- and high-wage roles most affected. This trend extends to fields such as finance, healthcare, and education, with occupations like administrative support and business operations facing significant change. The impact is not universal; manual-intensive roles in industries like construction and extraction are less exposed to AI. However, workers in finance and STEM fields may face considerable job changes as AI adoption increases. Quantitative data from the Brookings analysis of OpenAI suggests that job roles with higher pay tend to face greater AI task exposure, linking financial vulnerability to occupational automation risks.

Three priority areas for a proactive response

• Employer practices: Employers are urged to establish responsible AI deployment strategies, with transparent policies that incorporate workers’ insights into the design and implementation of AI solutions. Voluntary standards, guided by initiatives like the Partnership on AI, are suggested to address ethical concerns and improve accountability in AI deployment.
• Worker voice and influence: The report highlights the necessity of amplifying worker voice within the generative AI landscape, especially in sectors with low union representation. The Writers Guild of America’s success in establishing AI usage boundaries offers a model for other industries.
• Public policy levers: Policymakers are called to action, with suggestions to develop regulatory frameworks that address AI’s impact on job security, pay equity, and employment standards. The report recommends creating policies that support worker transitions and address labour displacement risks, such as enhanced worker protection standards within AI procurement contracts.