The battle over energy security: Challenging the fossil fuel playbook
This report by InfluenceMap analyses how the fossil fuel industry uses geopolitical instability to promote energy security narratives. It highlights the industry’s historical playbook of delaying the renewable transition and outlines current counter-arguments from renewable sectors advocating for electrification to ensure genuine energy independence and affordability.
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OVERVIEW
Introduction
The fossil fuel industry has deployed a playbook of misleading narratives pushing fossil fuels as the key to global energy security and affordability in the wake of the war in Ukraine and now in response to the war in Iran. In 2021 (1), the fossil fuel industry predicted such a “black swan event upending the global political agenda” in the first half of the decade. The renewable energy and utility sectors are wresting back control of the energy security narrative as geopolitical instability plunges the world into the second major energy crisis of the decade.
2022: Energy security push following the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Following the outbreak of war, the global oil and gas industry warned of an impending energy security crisis, which could only be averted through new investments in fossil fuels. For example, ahead of the G7 Summit in Japan in May 2023 (1), industry associations sent a joint letter to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to advocate for new investments in liquefied natural gas infrastructure. In North America, the American Petroleum Institute ran an ad campaign consisting of 233 (2) individual ads that received roughly 19.6 million (2) views, equivalent to around 10% (2) of all US Facebook users (Q1 2022 (2)). This promoted fossil fuels as a means to achieve “American-made energy”.
A tried and tested industry playbook for energy crises
InfluenceMap’s analysis shows that the sector has systematically deployed narratives and arguments to oppose, weaken, and delay the energy transition for decades since 1967 (2), including throughout the 1970s (2) oil crises. In the year leading up to November 2025 (2) (COP30 (2)), references to energy affordability and security nearly doubled compared to the year leading up to November 2024 (2) (COP29 (2)).
2026: War in the Middle East
Global conflict in Iran has reignited oil and gas supply issues. For example, the EU’s reliance on imports for over 80% (4) of its oil and gas has exposed it to significant global price fluctuations. Despite volatile oil and gas supply driving the crisis, the sector has touted new fossil gas as a solution to energy security concerns. This advocacy is coupled with company-level climate rollbacks; in March 2026 (5), TotalEnergies announced that it will no longer aim to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 (5).
Global leaders clear that renewable-led transition is the solution
Key expert bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasise that any new investments in fossil fuels put climate objectives, including limiting global warming to 1.5°C (6), at risk. Mainstream political and business figures are now acknowledging this.
New industry voices fight back on energy security misconceptions
An emerging contingent of industry voices from the renewable energy and utilities sector emphasise the importance of renewable-based electrification and the development of domestic renewables to strengthen energy independence. Clear, science-based communications and decision-making by global leaders in industry, finance, and policymaking are essential to avoid repeating past mistakes and accelerate the transition to cleaner, more secure renewable energy sources.
