Scope of the challenge and menu of possible solutions

The report examines how to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050 while avoiding further agricultural land expansion, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and supporting poverty reduction. Global food demand is projected to increase by more than 50% from 2010 levels, while agriculture already occupies almost half of vegetated land and generates around one-quarter of global emissions. Three gaps are identified for 2050: a 56% food gap, a land gap of 593 million hectares, and an emissions mitigation gap of 11 Gt CO₂e. To address these challenges, the report proposes a menu of 22 actions grouped into five courses.

Course 1: Reduce growth in demand for food and other agricultural products

Reducing demand growth lowers pressure on land and emissions. Around one-third of food produced globally is lost or wasted, accounting for roughly 25% of agricultural emissions. A 25% reduction in food loss and waste could reduce the land gap by more than 25%. Diet shifts are also critical. Ruminant livestock uses two-thirds of agricultural land and produces around half of production-related agricultural emissions, while providing a small share of calories. Reducing high ruminant meat consumption by about 40% among major consumers could nearly close the land gap. The report discourages expansion of crop-based bioenergy due to land competition and limited climate benefits. Voluntary reductions in fertility rates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa through education and healthcare access, could significantly reduce future food demand.

Course 2: Increase food production without expanding agricultural land

Productivity gains are identified as the most important factor in achieving a sustainable food future. Without them, land expansion and emissions would rise substantially. Priority actions include improving livestock and pasture productivity through better feed, breeding, animal health, and grazing management, particularly in developing regions. Crop breeding remains a major driver of yield growth, with gene-editing and genomic technologies offering further potential. Improving soil and water management, especially in degraded drylands, can boost yields and resilience. Increasing cropping intensity where environmentally viable could further reduce land pressure. Climate change adaptation is essential, as yield declines of around 10% by 2050 without adaptation would significantly widen the land gap.

Course 3: Protect and restore natural ecosystems and limit agricultural land shifting

Productivity gains must be explicitly linked to protection of forests, savannas, and peatlands to prevent further land conversion. Agricultural expansion is increasingly shifting into high-carbon ecosystems, increasing emissions and biodiversity loss. Reforesting abandoned or marginal land and restoring drained peatlands are identified as cost-effective mitigation measures, with peatlands delivering disproportionately large emissions reductions despite their small land area.

Course 4: Increase fish supply

Fish provides essential nutrition with lower land requirements than terrestrial livestock. Improving wild fisheries management can stabilise catches, while expanding aquaculture through improved feeds, breeding, and disease control can increase supply. While emissions impacts are modest, increased fish supply supports shifts away from more land- and emissions-intensive animal products.

Course 5: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production

Even with land-use controls, emissions from agricultural production must decline sharply. Key measures include reducing methane from ruminants and rice, improving manure and fertiliser management, increasing nitrogen-use efficiency, and shifting on-farm energy use towards renewables. Technological innovation, supported by increased research and development and enabling regulation, is required to achieve reductions at scale.

The complete menu: Creating a sustainable food future

The report concludes that no single intervention is sufficient. Closing the food, land, and emissions gaps requires simultaneous progress across all 22 menu items. Partial implementation risks rebound effects and failure to meet climate and food security goals.

Cross cutting policies for a sustainable food future

Effective delivery depends on cross-cutting policies, including aligning productivity incentives with ecosystem protection, increasing investment in research and data systems, strengthening governance, and ensuring food affordability. Support for smallholder farmers and women, and protection of freshwater resources, are also essential.

Conclusions

The report finds that a sustainable food future by 2050 is challenging but achievable. Success requires coordinated, large-scale action across governments, businesses, farmers, and consumers to implement the full menu of solutions.