Overview

The Production Gap is a recurring benchmark series, first initiated in 2019, that assesses the alignment between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and pathways consistent with international climate objectives. It focuses on the supply side of climate risk and enables comparison across countries and over time.

Purpose

The purpose of the series is to improve transparency around future fossil fuel production and its consistency with stated climate commitments. It provides a structured reference point for understanding how policy, planning, and investment decisions shape long-term production trajectories.

Methodology

The benchmark applies a consistent methodology using publicly available government plans, projections, and policy documents for coal, oil, and gas production. These are compared against global production pathways derived from internationally recognised climate scenarios. The analysis is updated periodically to reflect new data and policy developments.

Use for finance professionals

Finance professionals can use this series to support climate risk assessment, transition risk analysis, portfolio alignment, and stewardship activities. It provides a basis for evaluating country-level exposure, policy credibility, and systemic risks associated with future fossil fuel production.