Executive summary

Renewable-based electrification is identified as a central pillar of the global transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF). The report argues that COP31 should explicitly link the proposed ‘35 by 35’ target—aiming to increase electricity’s share of final energy consumption to 35% by 2035—to the rapid expansion of renewable energy, grids, storage, and efficiency. Progress must occur simultaneously in both end-use electrification and increasing the share of renewables in generation to ensure demand is not shifted onto fossil-fuel-based power systems.

Political context

The UAE consensus reached at COP28 marked a turning point in international climate diplomacy, with governments agreeing to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable capacity, and double energy efficiency by 2030. However, implementation remains a significant challenge. Geopolitical crises, such as the conflict in the Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have exposed the strategic risks of continued fossil-fuel dependence, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia. The incoming Turkish COP Presidency has placed electrification at the centre of the COP31 Action Agenda through the ‘35 by 35’ initiative, intended to drive the implementation of the COP28 energy package.

Renewable-based electrification as a driver for the transition away from fossil fuels

Electrification can shift energy demand from direct fossil-fuel use in transport, buildings, and industry. However, without an explicit focus on renewable-based electricity, increased consumption carries the risk of relying on fossil-fuelled power. A framework of three indicators is proposed for assessing global progress: an electrification rate benchmark of 35% globally by 2035; a renewable electricity share benchmark of 78% by 2035; and a fossil-fuel share in total energy supply (TES) benchmark decreasing to 48% by 2035. According to IRENA’s 1.5°C scenario, renewable electricity must account for 27.3% of total final energy consumption by 2035.

Five country cases: from global targets to national implementation

Countries are categorised into tiers based on their progress toward the established benchmarks. Germany, once an energy transition leader, is now considered an electrification laggard. While it is broadly on track to reach 78% renewable electricity by 2035, its electrification rate is falling well short of necessary levels. Conversely, Turkey, the architect of the ‘35 by 35’ target, has seen wind and solar become main drivers of domestic growth, though further acceleration is needed to reach renewable targets. Coal still accounts for approximately one-third of Turkey’s power generation, much of which relies on imports.

Ethiopia is highlighted as a ‘leapfrogger’, with over 95% of its installed generation capacity coming from renewables, including hydropower and waste-to-energy. However, 56% of the population still lacks basic electricity access, and 92% of households rely on traditional biomass for cooking. Indonesia is on track for the 35% electrification target but remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, which accounted for 82% of its electricity generation in 2024. China is the global frontrunner, having reached a 33.6% electrification rate in 2024. While China’s renewable deployment is accelerating, it still faces challenges in reducing the coal share in its power sector and total energy supply.

Equity in the ‘35 by 35’ target

Energy transition pathways vary significantly by region due to differences in economic structures and fiscal space. Asia is electrifying rapidly, outpacing the European Union and the United States in EV uptake and solar deployment. While the 35% target is a common global benchmark, advanced economies should pursue higher levels of ambition. The report suggests the European Union should aim for a 60% electrification rate by 2040. In contrast, many poorer developing countries face high financial constraints; the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for renewable energy in Africa is approximately 12%, compared to 3.8% in Germany. Wealthy nations have a responsibility to provide concessional finance and technology transfer to enable leapfrogging.

Key action priorities for COP31

COP31 must translate global commitments into concrete national actions. Action 1 involves spelling out the ‘35 by 35’ target in concrete terms, integrating renewables, efficiency, and a circular economy approach. Turkey’s announcement of a 15% circular material use target for 2035 is noted as an important initiative. Action 2 calls for integrating renewable-based electrification into national TAFF roadmaps. Germany is encouraged to lead by example by announcing its commitment to develop a national TAFF roadmap and a comprehensive electrification strategy ahead of COP31.

Action 3 focuses on providing finance for poor countries, particularly through the reform of the international financial architecture and the Xingu Finance Talks. Specific goals include lowering the cost of capital and ensuring debt sustainability assessments do not penalise electrification investments. Action 4 emphasises anchoring a just transition by promoting responsible mineral supply chains and ensuring local value creation in producing countries. Advancing distributed renewables is essential to solve energy access problems and establish a foundation for equitable development.