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Fiscal policy and transition risk
This report uses an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyse how climate policies interact with pre-existing labour and capital taxes. It finds that transition risks depend on policy design, financing choices, and financial frictions, highlighting critical differences between carbon taxes and abatement subsidies.
Frontier AI auditing: Toward rigorous third-party assessment of safety and security practices at leading AI companies
This report proposes a rigorous framework for third-party auditing of frontier AI systems to verify safety and security claims. Addressing the opacity of current self-assessments, it advocates for structured AI Assurance Levels, deep access to non-public information, and continuous monitoring to enable confident deployment and standardisation across the industry.
Tax Incentives in national investment laws: Bridging the gap between tax and investment policy-makers
This report analyses how tax incentives are embedded and governed within national investment laws across emerging markets and developing economies. It highlights coordination gaps between investment and tax authorities, the dominance of tax holidays, and the need for stronger anti-cumulation safeguards to prevent unintended revenue losses.
Cracking the credit code: Alternative data and AI for financial inclusion
This report explores how alternative data and artificial intelligence are redefining credit scoring to enhance financial inclusion for women and underserved borrowers. It analyses market trends, evaluates the risks of algorithmic bias, and provides actionable recommendations to scale responsible, inclusive credit access across emerging markets.
A systematic review of the voluntary governance landscape for an urgent, high-integrity, and equitable transition to net zero
This systematic review analyses 36 voluntary governance documents to assess how well they guide non-state entities towards an urgent, high-integrity, and equitable net-zero transition. It identifies consensus areas, like science-based targets, alongside critical gaps in operational detail, equity, and accountability, highlighting the need for robust standards and regulation.
Planetary solvency: Tipping into the wild unknown: Global nature risk management
This report outlines how the degradation of global ecosystems threatens societal and economic resilience. It highlights immediate risks to food systems and health, long-term ecosystem tipping points, and the necessity of integrating biodiversity into financial models. Actuaries and policymakers are urged to adopt systemic, narrative-based risk management strategies.
Underwriting the future of resilience: Developing insurable and bankable infrastructure
This report explores how the insurance industry assesses physical climate risks for new social infrastructure projects. It identifies five key enablers to integrate climate resilience across project lifecycles, advocating for early stakeholder engagement and forward-looking risk assessments to ensure long-term asset insurability, bankability, and value in a changing climate.
Value of nature: The investment case for nature-based solutions
This report examines how Ecosystem Service Valuation (ESV) can scale finance for Nature-based Solutions (NbS). By revealing the distribution of socio-economic benefits and costs across stakeholders, ESV provides a standardised framework to inform financial mechanisms and structure effective public-private partnerships.
Catalysing partnerships to mobilise infrastructure financing and investment in low- and middle-income countries
This learning note explores how an ecosystem approach to infrastructure financing can mobilise capital in low- and middle-income countries. It highlights the importance of early finance engagement, de-risking mechanisms, and integrated partnerships to transform technically sound projects into commercially viable investments.
What can investors do about climate change?
This report explores the evolving role of investors in addressing climate change. Drawing on insights from major asset managers, it advocates shifting from market-led targets to a policy-led approach. Investors are advised to focus on realistic stewardship, pragmatic objective-setting, and policy advocacy to effectively manage climate-related financial risks.
Climate litigation as a financial risk: Evidence from a global survey of equity investors
This report surveys 811 global equity investors to assess perceptions of climate litigation as a financial risk. It finds that investors view climate lawsuits as financially material, with effects often manifesting early, such as upon media coverage or filing, and affecting both carbon majors and other sectors.
Acceleration is not a strategy: A framework for directing AI towards public value before it's too late
This report outlines a framework for European governments to steer artificial intelligence towards public value rather than just accelerating sector growth. It recommends implementing AI directionism by targeting high-impact uses, preparing priority sectors for adoption, curbing big tech monopolies, and ensuring the economic benefits are broadly shared.
Reforming investment contracts: Why policy - makers must act now — and how
This policy brief highlights the urgent need to reform investor–state contracts to support sustainable development. It explores how fragmented frameworks, outdated stabilisation clauses, and tax incentives undermine national laws. The report recommends strengthening interministerial coordination, assessing existing contracts, and developing national model agreements to improve transparency and policy coherence.
24/7 renewables: The economics of firm solar and wind
This report analyses the transition to reliable, round-the-clock renewable energy through solar, wind, and battery storage. Introducing the firm levelised cost of electricity (F-LCOE), it evaluates the cost-competitiveness of hybrid systems against fossil fuels and outlines the necessary policy reforms to support widespread deployment.
Assessing the resilience of global grain supplies to compound climatic and non-climatic shocks
This research evaluates the resilience of global grain supplies to compounding climatic and non-climatic shocks. Using a bilateral trade model for 177 countries, it demonstrates that energy price spikes and extreme weather severely disrupt food systems, highlighting the need for strategic stockpiling and diversified trade agreements to ensure food security.
Energy and AI in East Asia
This report examines the intersection of artificial intelligence and energy in East Asia. It highlights how AI optimises renewable energy integration and grid management, whilst addressing rising data centre electricity demand. It recommends accelerating digitalisation, updating regulatory frameworks, and promoting clean energy procurement to ensure sustainable development.