24/7 renewables: The economics of firm solar and wind
This report analyses the transition to reliable, round-the-clock renewable energy through solar, wind, and battery storage. Introducing the firm levelised cost of electricity (F-LCOE), it evaluates the cost-competitiveness of hybrid systems against fossil fuels and outlines the necessary policy reforms to support widespread deployment.
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OVERVIEW
The rise of round-the-clock renewable power
Solar photovoltaics (PV) and onshore wind have become the most cost-competitive sources of new electricity generation globally. However, as the share of variable renewables increases, the central challenge of the energy transition is shifting towards adequacy and flexibility—ensuring clean power is available whenever and wherever needed. High renewable shares can depress wholesale prices during periods of peak generation, which erodes revenues. Consequently, a new generation of hybrid assets combining solar PV, wind, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) is emerging. These systems can optimise grid connections, shift output to higher-value hours, and deliver reliable, round-the-clock renewable electricity. This momentum is further accelerated by rising electricity demand from data centres and advanced manufacturing, as well as evolving greenhouse gas accounting standards that increasingly value hourly and locational matching over annual volume.
The economics of firm renewable power
To assess the full economics of renewables, the report introduces the firm levelised cost of electricity (F-LCOE) as a project-level benchmark. Unlike conventional LCOE, the F-LCOE captures the total cost of supplying continuous, reliable power using renewable generation and storage. Modelling indicates that the cost of delivering firm renewable electricity has declined rapidly due to falling costs for solar PV, wind, and BESS. Between 2010 and 2024, total installed costs declined by 87 per cent for solar PV and 55 per cent for onshore wind, while BESS costs fell even more sharply, declining by 93 per cent. In favourable regions such as China, firm solar-plus-storage already falls well below the cost of new coal-fired generation, with a significant majority of assessed projects capable of delivering firm electricity below USD 100 per megawatt hour. Globally, firm LCOEs for solar-plus-storage have dropped substantially and are projected to fall below USD 50 per megawatt hour at the best-performing sites by 2035. Additionally, combining solar and wind leverages their natural complementarity, which lowers the overall firming requirement and substantially reduces costs compared with firming either technology in isolation. The competitive advantage of firm renewables over fossil generation has widened, reinforcing the economic case for continuous clean power across energy-intensive industries and green hydrogen production.
From cost competitiveness to deployment at scale
Reaching widespread deployment requires moving beyond technological cost potential to addressing system-level integration. Technology learning curves indicate that continued manufacturing scale and supply chain maturation will drive further cost reductions. However, realising this potential relies on matching specific hybrid configurations to their environmental and market contexts. Enabling policies are decisive in this transition. Market design reforms that explicitly value flexibility and firmness, along with streamlined permitting and grid connection processes, are essential. Addressing these policy and regulatory gaps will determine how quickly the demonstrated cost reductions translate into deployed firm renewable capacity and a reduced reliance on fossil fuels.