Key findings

The report highlights that plastic use has doubled between 2000 and 2019 and is projected to nearly triple by 2060, driven by economic and population growth. Despite improvements in waste management, annual plastic leakage to the environment is expected to double by 2060, particularly in rapidly developing economies. The accumulated stock of plastics in water bodies could more than triple over the same period.

Eliminating plastic leakage is possible but requires coordinated global action across the entire plastics lifecycle. The OECD’s Global Ambition policy package projects that by 2060, plastic use could be reduced by one-third, leakage nearly eliminated, and 60% of plastics recycled. Implementing these policies would reduce global GDP by only 0.8% (USD 3.4 trillion) below baseline levels, with higher relative costs for developing economies—up to a 2.8% GDP reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Additional investments of around USD 10 billion per year in non-OECD countries will be required to close waste management gaps. The report stresses the need for increased development co-operation and private-sector mobilisation to meet these financing demands.

Without additional policies, plastic pollution is set to worsen

Under a business-as-usual scenario, plastic use is projected to nearly triple by 2060. OECD countries will double their use, while Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and South and Southeast Asia are expected to see increases of 6.5, 5.5 and 3.7 times respectively.

Mismanaged waste is projected to rise from 79 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 to 153 Mt in 2060, and plastic leakage could reach 44 Mt per year. The build-up of plastics in aquatic environments is projected to more than triple.

Global Action Is Needed To Effectively Tackle Plastic Leakage
Eliminating plastic leakage requires integrated policy packages addressing all stages of the plastics lifecycle. Key measures include:

Restraining plastic demand through taxes and incentives that promote durable, repairable products and encourage circularity.

Enhancing recycling, using recycled content targets and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes for packaging, vehicles, and textiles.

Closing leakage pathways by investing in waste collection, controlled landfills, and litter management.

The Global Ambition scenario shows that coordinated global policies can cut plastic leakage by 98% by 2060. However, 86% of current leakage occurs in non-OECD countries, meaning most action must be focused there.

The Cost Of Eliminating Plastic Leakage Is Higher In Developing Countries
The macroeconomic impact of policies to eliminate plastic leakage is modest globally but uneven across regions. Non-OECD countries are expected to face an average GDP reduction of 1%, compared with 0.4% in OECD countries. Sub-Saharan Africa will face the highest costs, requiring major investment in waste management systems.

Achieving global elimination of plastic leakage will require cumulative additional investments of around USD 600 billion by 2060, mostly in non-OECD countries. Investments will focus on expanding recycling capacity and improving waste treatment infrastructure such as collection and landfilling.

Development co-operation has a key role to play

Development finance for plastic pollution mitigation has grown significantly. Official Development Assistance (ODA) targeting plastics increased six-fold between 2014 and 2020, rising from an annual average of USD 331 million to USD 700 million. Total development finance for plastics-related projects reached an annual average of USD 1.4 billion over 2019–20.

However, development finance remains misaligned with areas of highest leakage. For instance, China and India account for 25% and 11% of non-OECD plastic leakage but receive only 6% and 2% of related finance respectively. Conversely, ODA-eligible European countries, which contribute just 2.2% of leakage, receive 19.4% of total finance.

Key levers to scale up development financing

Development finance currently represents only a fraction of what is needed to eliminate global plastic leakage. The report identifies four key levers to enhance financing effectiveness:

• Scaling up resources by mobilising private investment through blended finance and innovative tools such as blue bonds.
• Enhancing targeting and alignment by using data-driven approaches to direct funds where leakage is greatest.
• Adopting good practices and fostering innovation, including EPR schemes, circular design, and technology transfer for recycling and waste management.
• Promoting mutual learning and guidance to improve policy coordination and strengthen international collaboration.

The report concludes that eliminating plastic leakage by 2060 is technically and economically achievable but demands ambitious, globally coordinated action, with developing countries requiring substantial financial and technical support.