Introduction

The 2025 report assesses 85 high-, middle- and low-income countries against the ASCOR framework, up from 70 in 2024 (p.8). The expanded universe covers around 90% of global greenhouse gas emissions and GDP, as well as 100% of four major government bond indices (p.9).

Pillar 1. Emissions pathways

Total emissions from the 85 assessed countries rose from 44.9 to 45.4 gigatonnes of CO₂-equivalent between 2023 and 2024 (p.14). Most countries (78%) have set net zero targets (p.12), but alignment with 1.5°C benchmarks in near-term trends and targets remains rare. By September 2025, only around one-third of assessed countries had announced updated NDCs with new 2035 targets — the weakest-performing area across the entire framework (p.6).

Pillar 2. Climate policies

The majority of assessed countries (54 of 85) have a climate framework law (p.17). Carbon pricing is applied in 50 of 71 assessed countries (p.17), though in most (31 of 50), the instrument covers less than half of national emissions. The fossil fuels area remains the weakest, with few countries committing to phase out subsidies or halt new extraction, despite promising steps including the launch of COFFIS.

Pillar 3. Climate finance

Between 2021 and 2023, only 7 of 22 assessed countries contributed their proportional share of the US$100 billion international climate finance commitment (p.22). Most assessed countries (71%) provide a basic level of transparency on climate-related expenditures (p.23), and a growing number (18 of 85) apply climate budget tagging (p.23).

A synthesis of ASCOR results across pillars

EU and Latin American countries continue to lead on pillar scores, while the Middle East and North Africa records the lowest average (p.26). Colombia performs well among middle-income countries on both pillars. In the low-income group, Nigeria leads on Emissions Pathways and Kenya on Climate Policies and Finance (p.26).

Trends in pillar scores

Emissions Pathways scores show a slight downward trend, as global emissions have not yet peaked (p.29). The US’s withdrawal of its 2030 and net zero targets largely explains the decline in the emissions-weighted average for high-income countries. Improvements are concentrated in Climate Policies and Finance among low- and middle-income countries, possibly reflecting catch-up dynamics (p.29).

Trends in area results

Transparency in climate costing (CF 2) shows the largest advances across all income groups (p.29). Middle-income countries progressed on climate legislation, carbon pricing and climate costing. High-income countries, excluding the US, backtracked on carbon pricing but progressed in most other areas. The US recorded the most negative net indicator changes of any country (-9) (p.30).

Country case studies of progress, weakening and retreat

Costa Rica improved most among middle-income countries on Climate Policies and Finance through enhanced transparency of climate finance needs and spending (p.30). New Zealand weakened several policies, discontinuing its net zero electricity target and abandoning just transition programmes (p.31). The United States saw the steepest declines across both pillars, revoking commitments on mitigation, adaptation, just transition and international climate finance following its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (p.31).

Implication for investors and sovereigns

The 2025 ASCOR universe covers 100% of four major global government bond indices (p.33). The first ETF tracking an index using ASCOR data was launched (p.33), and Slovenia became the first European country to issue a sustainability-linked bond referencing the ASCOR assessment (p.34). Investors are encouraged to use ASCOR for engagement with sovereigns and to integrate it into sovereign debt analysis.

Next steps and future research

Plans include launching a stakeholder consultation at the end of 2025, refining the tool with new data and scientific insights, and exploring integration of ASCOR country assessments with corporate analyses (p.34).