A well-adapted UK: The fourth independent assessment of UK climate risk (CCRA4-IA)
This report assesses the UK’s climate risks to 2050, identifies priority adaptation actions across key sectors, and outlines investment, policy and governance measures to strengthen resilience. It provides evidence-based recommendations to support climate adaptation planning and reduce long-term economic and societal impacts.
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OVERVIEW
Chapter 1: UK climate change risk
The UK is already experiencing more frequent heatwaves, flooding, drought and wildfires. Under 2°C of global warming by 2050, almost one-third of 41 assessed climate risks could reach very high magnitude and 27 risks require critical or additional action. The report highlights rising risks to health, infrastructure, ecosystems and the economy, particularly for vulnerable communities.
Chapter 2: The case for adaptation
Early adaptation is more cost-effective than responding to future damage. Around £11 billion annually (range £7–22 billion) is estimated to be needed, mainly for cooling, flood resilience and water management, with benefits expected to exceed costs substantially. Governments, businesses and households all have roles in delivering adaptation supported by long-term investment and policy.
Chapter 3: Principles for effective adaptation
The report proposes ten principles that emphasise clear objectives, measurable targets, future-focused planning, cross-sector coordination, avoiding maladaptation, embedding resilience into decisions, monitoring outcomes and regularly evaluating progress to improve adaptation over time.
Chapter 4: Health
Heat is identified as the UK’s greatest climate-related health risk. Annual heat-related deaths could rise from 1,400–3,000 today to 3,000–10,000 by 2050 without further adaptation. Recommended actions include cooling hospitals, care homes and housing, workplace temperature standards, public cooling spaces and targeted support for vulnerable households.
Chapter 5: Built environment and communities
Nearly seven million properties are already exposed to flood risk, with annual damages projected to increase from £3.3 billion to £4.5 billion by 2050. The report recommends increasing long-term flood defence investment to £1.6–2.2 billion annually, restricting development in high-risk areas, expanding property-level resilience and improving drainage and emergency planning.
Chapter 6: Public services
Hospitals, schools, emergency services and other public assets should be upgraded to withstand heat, flooding and other climate hazards through resilient infrastructure, cooling, emergency planning and coordinated adaptation across services.
Chapter 7: Cultural heritage
Historic buildings, landscapes and archaeological sites face increasing threats from flooding, overheating and erosion. The report recommends integrating climate resilience into conservation, maintenance and long-term heritage planning.
Chapter 8: Water and wastewater
England could face water supply deficits exceeding five billion litres per day by 2050. The report recommends reservoirs, water transfers, leakage reduction, improved efficiency, stronger regulation and drought-resilient development to achieve resilience to a one-in-500-year drought by 2040.
Chapter 9: Energy
Energy infrastructure should be designed for future climate conditions, with resilient networks, improved maintenance and stronger coordination across infrastructure sectors to minimise service disruption.
Chapter 10: Transport
Transport systems should prioritise resilient infrastructure, flood and heat protection, proactive maintenance and coordinated management of climate risks to reduce disruption across road, rail, aviation and maritime networks.
Chapter 11: Waste
Waste services should strengthen resilience to flooding, heat and operational disruption through improved infrastructure, emergency preparedness and continuity planning.
Chapter 12: Digital and telecoms
The report recommends climate-resilient digital infrastructure, improved coordination with energy providers and governance arrangements that reduce cascading failures across essential communication services.
Chapter 13: Land
Nature restoration should reflect future climate conditions. The report recommends protecting 30% of land by 2030, restoring ecosystems by 2050, improving habitat connectivity, integrating wildfire management and supporting climate-resilient farming through better soil, water and land management while maintaining at least 60% domestic food production.
Chapter 14: Sea
Sea-level rise of 20–45 cm by 2050 will increase coastal flooding and erosion. Adaptation should combine coastal protection, habitat restoration, monitoring and managed realignment where protection is no longer viable.
Chapter 15: Food security
Climate change threatens domestic production and global supply chains. The report recommends climate risk reporting for major food businesses, stress-testing supply chains, considering strategic food reserves and measures to reduce climate-related food price impacts on households.
Chapter 16: Economy and finance
Climate risks threaten insurance availability, investment and financial stability. The report recommends preventing growth in the insurance protection gap, reviewing Flood Re before 2039 and integrating climate resilience into financial and infrastructure investment decisions.
Chapter 17: National security and international engagement
Climate change presents growing risks to critical infrastructure, supply chains and geopolitical stability. The report recommends embedding climate resilience into national security planning, strengthening cross-government coordination and enhancing international cooperation on transboundary climate risks.