The European Union (EU) continues to drive substantial levels of deforestation in tropical countries through its consumption of agricultural commodities. This ongoing exposure underscores the vital importance of ensuring the swift and effective implementation of the delayed EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) from next year. Trase has published its latest assessment of the EU’s links to global deforestation through its imports of over 150 agricultural commodities, covering the bloc as a whole and providing 27 individual factsheets on the exposure of each member state.

Despite a reduction in its deforestation footprint, analysis shows that the EU was exposed to 112,500 hectares (ha) of deforestation per year over the period 2021–2023 through its imports of agricultural commodities. This figure is slightly lower when excluding deforestation that takes place within the EU itself, which stands at 108,600 ha per year. Both are likely to be underestimates given the challenges in linking more processed products, especially wood and rubber derivatives, to deforestation. The EU is most exposed to deforestation via imports of cocoa from Côte d’Ivoire, which account for 38,800 ha per year, accounting for 40.1% of the EU total. This is followed by soy from Brazil (13,600 ha, 14.1%), cattle products from Brazil (10,400 ha, 10.8%), and palm oil from Indonesia (7,300 ha, 7.6%).

Progress to reduce EU deforestation exposure

The EU’s deforestation exposure has fallen over time, with the total exposure for 2023 being less than half of the value recorded for 2014. A major reason is a major drop in deforestation exposure from palm oil, which was historically the most important contributor to the EU’s footprint but is now down 91% over the same period. This reduction reflects much lower rates of deforestation for palm oil in Indonesia than a decade ago and is also a result of a significant fall in EU palm oil import volumes in recent years tied to the phase-out of palm oil-derived biofuels. There were also more modest declines in deforestation exposure from cocoa, coffee, and soy, while the risk from cattle products remained persistent over the period. These trends reflect a complicated picture of progress to reduce deforestation in key producer countries, showing that European agricultural imports are becoming decoupled from forest loss through voluntary efforts, shifting demand patterns, and incoming regulation.

The report emphasises that swift and effective implementation and enforcement of the EUDR can play a critical role in ensuring that these encouraging trends can be sustained, enhanced, and extended to all of the commodities and places that link EU demand to deforestation. This is especially important in the face of emerging risks in key sourcing regions; for example, the end of the Amazon Soy Moratorium, a landmark sectoral agreement whose recent suspension could upend years of progress in curbing soy-driven deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

Exposure varies greatly between member states

The analysis shows significant differences in the level of exposure between European countries to deforestation and the sourcing regions and commodities that bring the greatest risks. Major importing countries face the highest levels of exposure, with the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Italy, and Germany taking the top places. However, their risk profiles differ markedly; the Netherlands and Belgium are most exposed to deforestation from cocoa imports, whereas Spain is most exposed from soy and Italy from cattle products. These risk variations could have important implications for deforestation-free sourcing, both under the EUDR and in wider sustainability efforts, as individual commodity sectors and countries face different challenges and have differing levels of EUDR-readiness. Furthermore, the competent authorities responsible for enforcing the regulation in each member state are likely to have different priorities and information needs depending on their particular country’s risk profile.

Re-exports redistribute deforestation exposure to other countries

While data shows which countries are most likely to import products linked to deforestation into the European market, trade modelling that adjusts for re-exports reveals a more complex reality. Many of these products may be re-exported and ultimately consumed elsewhere within the EU or further afield. Trase’s analysis finds that for some countries, the picture changes substantially. While the Netherlands is by far the most exposed country from a ‘direct trade’ perspective (due to the importance of the port of Rotterdam, for example), it is actually Germany that is most exposed when accounting for re-exports, with its footprint increasing particularly for cocoa and cattle products. Similarly, Italy’s exposure from cocoa is significantly higher after adjusting for re-exports than when only looking at direct trade.

In other cases, an overall footprint can be quite similar from both perspectives, but the balance of commodities shifts. Italy is a major importer of cattle products from Brazil, but much of this may be re-exported elsewhere. Re-export modelling also accounts for landlocked countries such as Austria or Czechia, which have almost no ‘direct’ exposure to deforestation but have more significant and varied exposure once re-exports account for intra-EU trade. Furthermore, the EU’s overall deforestation exposure from cocoa is lower after accounting for re-exports (41,700 ha compared to 45,600 ha), reflecting its role as a processing hub for products that may be consumed elsewhere. In contrast, its exposure from industrial roundwood is much higher once re-exports are factored in (3,700 ha, compared to 820 ha), suggesting the EU may be importing timber associated with deforestation indirectly via intermediaries.

New EU27 deforestation factsheets available

For more detailed information on the deforestation exposure of individual member states, Trase has updated its set of EU27 factsheets. These factsheets incorporate the latest commodity-driven deforestation data presented in this analysis, providing stakeholders with updated resources to evaluate and address specific regional risks.