A new era of energy transition

The report outlines four waves to 2050: foundation, acceleration, growth and horizon. Rapid system-wide decarbonisation is required to meet carbon budgets and Nationally Determined Contributions. Electricity has driven most emissions reductions since 1990, but around 85% of emissions reductions to 2035 must come from outside the power sector. Road and rail, residential heat and aviation require accelerated action. Timely investment, infrastructure delivery and public engagement are critical.

Shaping energy: The consumer

Consumer behaviour materially influences pathway outcomes. Holistic Transition and Electric Engagement assume high engagement through energy efficiency, demand shifting, smart homes, electric vehicles and heat pumps. Increased demand flexibility reduces system costs and improves renewable utilisation. Policy and market design must make participation simple and equitable to build confidence and deliver consistent benefits.

Powering the system: Electricity supply

Electricity becomes the backbone of the net zero system. Electric Engagement has the highest peak electricity demand, requiring substantial renewable and nuclear capacity. Holistic Transition also deploys high renewables with moderate nuclear, eliminating unabated gas by 2050. Supply-side flexibility is delivered through storage, interconnectors and low carbon dispatchable generation. Reduced reliance on gas-fired generation lowers exposure to fuel price shocks and supports zero-carbon operability.

Fuelling the system

Hydrogen and low carbon fuels play differentiated roles. Hydrogen Evolution assumes rapid hydrogen deployment in industry and heat, supported by a national network, with high hydrogen dispatchable capacity and storage. Holistic Transition limits hydrogen mainly to industrial clusters. Low carbon fuels are required for heavy goods vehicles, aviation and shipping. Early policy direction is necessary to scale hydrogen, biomethane and synthetic fuels.

Crossing the horizon: Carbon capture and storage and negative emissions

All net zero pathways require engineered carbon removals. Holistic Transition and Electric Engagement meet the Sixth and recommended Seventh Carbon Budgets but depend on large-scale BECCS in the 2030s. Hydrogen Evolution includes greater DACCS deployment in the 2040s. Direct air capture is also used without storage to produce sustainable aviation and shipping fuels from the late 2030s. Renewable electricity or waste heat supplies process energy.

Whole system opportunities on the route to Net Zero

The transition shifts expenditure from operational fossil fuel costs to upfront capital investment in low carbon infrastructure. Cost volatility is reduced compared with a fossil-based system, though weather-related variability remains. Cross-vector storage expansion, reduced system losses and lower gas imports enhance resilience and energy independence. Strategic spatial planning is required to optimise infrastructure development across electricity, gas and hydrogen networks.

Pathway insights

Three net zero pathways and one counterfactual are modelled. Holistic Transition combines electrification and hydrogen with strong consumer engagement and no unabated gas by 2050. Electric Engagement relies predominantly on electrified demand and records the highest peak electricity demand and BECCS deployment. Hydrogen Evolution features extensive hydrogen use and lower consumer engagement. Falling Behind assumes slower decarbonisation and continued fossil reliance, supporting security of supply assessments rather than net zero delivery.