Introduction

Climate change impacts are escalating, evidenced by extreme events such as floods in Pakistan and heatwaves in Europe. The IPCC warns that failing to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will severely affect health, biodiversity, and economic stability. While decarbonisation is necessary, it risks worsening inequality unless implemented fairly. A just transition—recognised by the ILO and included in the Paris Agreement preamble—seeks to address these risks through inclusive, equitable transformation. UNDP defines it by principles, processes, and practices that ensure no-one is left behind, particularly vulnerable groups like women, youth, informal workers, and those in fossil-fuel-dependent sectors.

Just transition and climate action: Key trends

As of October 2022, 65 of 170 enhanced NDCs (38%) and 29 of 52 LTSs (56%) reference just transition. However, only 17% of these NDCs and 55% of LTSs contain dedicated sections. Most references are still brief, lacking policy detail or cross-cutting links to economic diversification or social protection. Central and Eastern Europe lead uptake, with fewer references from Asia Pacific and Arab States. Long-term strategies show stronger integration than short-term plans. More than 19 countries have formed national transition commissions or policies, with regional initiatives accelerating (e.g. EU Just Transition Mechanism, G20 Sustainable Finance Framework).

The case for a transformative approach to just transition

The energy sector dominates just transition planning, though agriculture, land use, and education offer greater job multipliers. In Zimbabwe, conservation farming could create 100,000 jobs by 2035, while in Nigeria, agriculture yields 230–290 jobs per $1 million invested—higher than renewable energy. Gender disparities persist; only 10 of the 65 NDCs and 7 of 29 LTSs link just transition with gender. In Zimbabwe, conservation agriculture benefits unskilled women, while firewood reduction policies may adversely impact them. Around 73% of second-generation NDCs now reference women in climate sectors. Young people, making up 1.8 billion globally, face high unemployment yet remain underrepresented in policy and decision-making processes.

Nine percent of NDCs and 14% of LTSs link just transition to SDGs. While 79% of LTSs mention training and education, only 18% of NDCs do—highlighting the need to scale up human capital investments. UNDP and ILO emphasise the need for gender-transformative reskilling programmes to ensure fair access to green jobs.

The way forward: UNDP’s framework for incorporating just transition into NDCs and LTS

UNDP supports just transition across four pillars:

• Assessment: Green jobs modelling (e.g. Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Türkiye) helps forecast impacts and develop transition pathways.
• Engagement: Stakeholder dialogues in South Africa and Zimbabwe have led to youth policy briefs and institutional frameworks.
• Institutional, Policy And Capacity-Building Support: Support includes vocational training (e.g. Egypt, Lebanon), MSME greening (e.g. Belize), and integration into national development strategies (e.g. Colombia, Armenia).
• Finance: Just transition requires both public and private capital. UNDP’s DREI tool helps de-risk investments (e.g. Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal). The G20 is shaping a Just Transition Finance Framework. International partnerships (e.g. in South Africa) illustrate scalable finance models.

Country case studies

• Serbia: Aligning with the EU’s Just Transition Mechanism through decarbonisation and green industry planning.
• South Africa: National frameworks, stakeholder platforms, and the $8.5 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership drive implementation.
• Costa Rica: Strong policy coherence via its National Decarbonisation Plan and NDC; focuses on transport and labour strategies.
• India: Promotes green jobs and reskilling through partnerships, especially in coal regions like Jharkhand and Odisha.
• Antigua And Barbuda: Combines workforce transition, gender equity, and energy resilience across its economy. A national working group is advancing whole-of-economy application.

Key lessons

Success relies on institutional leadership, data, and inclusive engagement. Strategic framing and early wins can build momentum. Language matters: terms like “energy transition” may be more effective than “fossil fuel phase-out”. Programmes must address local needs, gender equity, and build capacity. Mainstreaming into existing strategies is critical. Financing must blend domestic resources with international support.

Conclusions

A just transition is vital to achieving the Paris Agreement, not only by supporting decarbonisation but also by tackling systemic inequalities. Progress is visible, but significant gaps remain. Countries should build on existing models, expand to all sectors, and strengthen LTS and NDC integration for inclusive, sustainable change.