0. Front matter

0.1 Dedication

The report acknowledges the contribution of regenerative thinker Carol Sanford, whose interview forms part of the evidence base and whose ideas on responsibility, contribution and systems thinking inform several analyses.

0.2 Executive summary

Not summarised, as required, as all key evidence is addressed in later chapters.

0.3 Introducing the r3.0 seeds series

This report launches the r3.0 Seeds Series, which aims to build a shared knowledge commons on systemic economic failure and regeneration. Volume 1 focuses on diagnosis rather than solutions, establishing a foundation for later volumes on regenerative imperatives, just transitions and bioregional transformation.

0.4 R3.0 seeds series knowledge co-creation due process

The analysis is based on interviews with approximately 20 global thinkers and practitioners from diverse economic, cultural and disciplinary backgrounds. Responses were synthesised to identify areas of convergence and divergence rather than promote a single doctrine.

1.0 Our predicament

1.1 Millennial-scale, bioregional-scale indigenous regenerative ecosystem management

Indigenous societies are presented as evidence that regenerative systems can persist for millennia when grounded in reciprocity, biodiversity and bioregional stewardship. These systems contrast with modern extractive economies.

1.2 All civilisations collapse

Historical analysis indicates that all civilisations collapse, with an average lifespan of 336 years. Collapse is therefore treated as a systemic pattern rather than a failure of individual governance.

1.3 Mercantile capitalism, racist genocide & colonial imperialism, anthropocene

The Anthropocene is linked to mercantile capitalism and colonial expansion. The 1610 “Orbis Spike” reflects global ecological disruption following Indigenous population collapse and agricultural breakdown.

1.4 Overshoot and collapse

Global Footprint Network data shows humanity has exceeded Earth’s regenerative capacity since 1971, confirming long-term ecological overshoot.

1.5 Phantom carrying capacity

Temporary buffers, including fossil fuels and globalised trade, have delayed ecological tipping points while increasing long-term systemic fragility.

1.6 Crossing 7 of 9 planetary boundaries

Research from the Stockholm Resilience Centre shows that 7 of 9 planetary boundaries have been crossed or are at risk, including climate change, biodiversity loss and freshwater systems.

1.7 Transgressing all 12 social foundations

Doughnut Economics analysis finds that all 12 social foundation thresholds are unmet globally, indicating persistent shortfalls in health, equity and wellbeing.

1.8 Planetary phase shift: metamorphosis

Adaptive cycle and panarchy theory frame the current moment as a collapse–reorganisation phase with potential for regenerative transformation.

2.0 Interview findings: Fundamental flaws

2.1 Aligned findings

2.1.1 Systems

Economic systems are described as structurally extractive, producing ecological damage and social harm.

2.1.2 Myth of separation

Anthropocentric thinking separates economies from ecological reality.

2.1.3 Mechanism, reductionism, linearity

The economy is treated as a machine rather than a living system.

2.1.4 Money

Debt-based monetary systems and GDP dominate decisions, obscuring ecological and social impacts.

2.1.5 Inequalities

Extreme wealth concentration suggests current society may be the most unequal in history.

2.1.6 Power

Economic and political power is highly centralised, weakening democratic accountability.

2.1.7 Capitalism

Capitalism prioritises private ownership, wage labour and profit maximisation, reinforcing imbalance.

2.1.8 Mindsets, paradigms

Scarcity, domination and individualism underpin prevailing economic thought.

2.1.9 Story, Narrative

Economic narratives equate progress with growth and consumption.

2.1.10 Ownership

Private land and resource ownership is traced to colonial and Bronze Age origins.

2.1.11 Thresholds, boundaries

Economic activity routinely ignores ecological limits.

2.1.12 Growth

Growth is treated as non-negotiable despite planetary constraints.

2.1.13 Scarcity

Artificial scarcity is created through enclosure of the commons.

2.1.14 Extractivism

Extraction has become a dominant institutional logic.

2.2 Idiosyncratic analyses

2.2.1 Theory of winning (survival of the fittest)

Competition-based economics misinterpret evolutionary science.

2.2.2 Theory of human blindness

Humans are assumed to require external control rather than self-governance.

2.2.3 Theory of expertise

Hierarchies of expertise suppress diverse contributions.

2.2.4 Coloniality

Colonial logics remain embedded in modern economies.

2.2.5 Universality

A single development pathway is imposed globally.

2.2.6 Entitlement

Entitlement-based systems displace responsibility and reciprocity.

3.0 Conclusion

The report finds strong convergence on the structural causes of the global predicament. It argues that avoiding actions that intensify harm, recognising limits and shifting from entitlement to responsibility are prerequisites for navigating systemic collapse.

4.0 Back matter: Acknowledgements

4.1 Lead authors

The report is authored by Bill Baue and Ralph Thurm.

4.2 Interviewees

Approximately 20 global thinkers contributed interviews forming the evidence base.

4.3 Working group members

Working group members supported synthesis and review.

4.4 Sponsors

The report acknowledges philanthropic and organisational sponsors.

4.5 Artist

Original artwork accompanies the publication.