This national security assessment examines how accelerating global biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation threaten UK security and prosperity. It applies intelligence-style uncertainty frameworks and assesses reasonable worst-case scenarios rather than providing a purely scientific analysis. The report concludes that risks are systemic, transboundary and likely to intensify to 2050 and beyond without major intervention.

Key judgements

The assessment finds with high confidence that ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions and that every critical ecosystem is on a pathway towards collapse. Biodiversity loss is already contributing to crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. Cascading risks are highly likely to include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, migration, conflict and increased competition for food, water and other natural resources.

Critical ecosystems that underpin global food production, climate regulation and water cycles are of particular importance to UK national security. Severe degradation or collapse would likely result in water insecurity, sharply reduced crop yields, fisheries collapse, loss of arable land, altered global weather patterns, release of stored carbon and heightened pandemic risk. The UK’s reliance on food and fertiliser imports means that, without greater resilience, it would struggle to maintain food security if geopolitical competition for resources intensifies.

Biodiversity loss is a global threat

The report highlights that monitored wildlife populations declined by an average of 73% between 1970 and 2020, with freshwater species populations falling by 84%. Vertebrate species populations declined by 68% over the same period. Extinction rates are tens to hundreds of times higher than the long-term natural average, indicating a potential sixth mass extinction.

Food production is identified as the most significant driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss. With the global population projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, pressure on land, water and ecosystems will intensify. Current trends indicate ecosystem degradation is highly likely to continue beyond 2050. International commitments such as the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework aim to reverse these trends through targets including protecting 30% of land and oceans by 2030, restoring 30% of degraded nature and mobilising US$700 billion in finance.

Biodiversity loss impacts national security

Nature is described as a foundation of national security, providing essential services such as food, water, clean air and climate regulation. Biodiversity loss undermines these services, increasing risks of food insecurity, inflation, health impacts and supply chain disruption. These pressures can escalate into political instability, extremism, serious organised crime and interstate conflict.

The report illustrates cascading risks through case studies, including crop failures contributing to migration and instability. Increasing scarcity of natural resources is expected to heighten competition between states and non-state actors, exacerbate existing conflicts and create new security challenges for the UK and its allies.

Critical ecosystems are at risk of collapsing

The assessment identifies six ecosystem regions as critical for UK national security due to the scale and speed of potential collapse and their global impacts: the Amazon rainforest, Congo Basin, South-East Asian coral reefs and mangroves, the Himalayas, and boreal forests in Russia and Canada. Some ecosystems, such as coral reefs and boreal forests, may begin collapsing from around 2030, with rainforests and mangroves potentially following from 2050.

Crossing ecological tipping points would lead to irreversible loss of ecosystem functions, accelerating climate change and biodiversity loss. Preventing collapse would require significant reductions in human pressures alongside ecosystem protection and restoration. Restoration is more feasible for some ecosystems, such as tropical forests, than others, including coral reefs.

Ecosystem collapse and UK Food Security

The UK imports around 40% of its food, over 25% from Europe, and is heavily reliant on imports for fruit, vegetables, sugar, animal feed and fertilisers. Ecosystem degradation in major food-producing regions would increase global scarcity and prices, potentially limiting the UK’s ability to secure affordable imports.

The report concludes that full food self-sufficiency is currently unrealistic without major dietary change, efficiency gains and investment. Protecting and restoring ecosystems is assessed as more reliable and cost-effective than relying solely on unproven technological solutions. Strengthening ecosystem resilience and food system efficiency is therefore central to reducing long-term national security risks.