Introduction

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and intensifying slow-onset climatic processes. Hazards such as droughts, floods, wildfires, and extreme temperatures cause significant damage to life, infrastructure, health, and education. Loss and damage occur when climate change impacts exceed the capacity of natural and human systems to adapt. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment underscores that losses are already being experienced at approximately 1.1°C of global warming. Developing countries and socially vulnerable groups bear the greatest burden.

Anthropogenic climate change produces significant losses to education, yet these remain under-recognised in climate policy. Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), education lacks a dedicated negotiation track and is often viewed as an enabler of climate action rather than a sector experiencing loss. Evidence demonstrates that sudden and slow-onset events affect educational access, attainment, and learning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. These effects occur through direct impacts, such as infrastructure damage, and indirect pathways, including reduced household income, increased child labour, and health shocks.

Education loss and damage assessment framework

The Education Loss and Damage Assessment (ELDA) framework is proposed to assess direct and indirect climate impacts on the education sector. It is estimated that between 2005 and 2024, climate-related disruptions affected 130 million children, contributing to $1.3 billion in direct damage to systems and up to $140 billion in projected lifetime income losses. The ELDA framework is designed to generate evidence to inform actions to avert, minimise, and address economic and non-economic losses. It estimates losses across local, regional, and national contexts and supports cross-sectoral coordination. The framework covers four core domains: access to education, school experience, education outcomes, and vulnerability.

School access assessment

Educational access refers to equitable opportunities to enrol, participate in, and complete quality education. Climate hazards reduce access by disrupting learning conditions. Indicators for access include enrolment rates, enrolment delays, attendance rates, dropout rates, and school closures. Infrastructure damage often forces schools to close or operate as shelters. For instance, the 2022 floods in Pakistan impacted approximately 17,205 public schools, with at least 6,225 institutions assessed as fully damaged and 10,980 as partially damaged. This affected an estimated 2.6 million enrolled students, including over 1 million female students. Physical impacts include damage to school buildings, water and sanitation systems, electricity supply, and roads. Temperature regulation is also a critical indicator, as extreme heat makes buildings unsuitable for learning.

School experience assessment

The school experience domain covers learners’ and teachers’ daily academic and emotional experiences. Learning capacity, the ability to acquire knowledge, is directly impacted by climate shocks. Indicators include malnutrition or hunger, mental health challenges (such as anxiety and PTSD), and illness. Heatwaves reduce attendance and increase illness-related absences, while discomfort and dehydration make it harder to concentrate. For teachers, extreme events lead to increased workloads, emotional strain, and pressure to cover curricula in less time, often in overcrowded conditions. The loss of routines and social connections following school closures also contributes to increased behavioural problems among students.

Education outcome assessment

Key education outcomes impacted by climate change are learning and educational attainment. Learning outcomes include cognitive results, literacy, numeracy, and standardised assessment scores. Educational attainment reflects the highest level of education completed, gauged by formal qualifications and proxies like Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS). Extreme heat is repeatedly associated with lower test scores, particularly for disadvantaged students. Droughts and floods generate income losses that increase child labour and nutrition stress. Early-life exposure to these shocks often results in fewer school years completed and lower chances of grade progression. Damage to books, uniforms, and identity documents further hinders reenrolment post-emergency.

Vulnerability assessment

Education vulnerability is the degree to which learners are at risk of experiencing barriers due to social, economic, or environmental disadvantages. Impacts vary by age, gender, disability, and geography. Girls’ attendance and attainment are more likely to be disrupted by domestic work or child marriage risks following shocks. Boys often face pressure to take up paid or unpaid work outside the home. Forcibly displaced students encounter administrative and language barriers. Cross-sectoral pathways, such as impacts on household livelihoods and public service provision, undermine educational equity. Illnesses linked to wildfire smoke or malnutrition from crop destruction delay enrolment and reduce learning outcomes.

Conclusion

Policy and financing mechanisms must recognise education as both a sector affected by climate change and a critical component of resilience. The ELDA framework provides a basis for making these impacts visible and actionable. Governments and donors should systematically assess economic and non-economic losses, including learning loss and psychosocial harm, while using vulnerability indicators to identify those most affected. This approach is essential to address the long-term effects on human capital and ensure equitable responses to education-related loss and damage.