Asia’s rapidly growing middle class is fuelling increased consumption of protein, but often the environmental consequences associated with this trend are not adequately considered. This report by Asia Research and Engagement (ARE) examines the risks and impacts of these dietary shifts and habits over the next decades, shedding light on the environmental and social consequences of the supply needed to meet the forecast growth in demand. ARE conducts this analysis by providing a baseline scenario against which to consider impacts and potential solutions to implement in order to progress to a sustainable food system.

First, ARE outlines estimations for future demand of meat and seafood based on the current situation. This includes analysis of projections of which countries will account for the highest consumption by 2050. The report notes that changes in per capita demand, disposable income, and population growth drive total consumption. It also assumes that culinary preferences and cultures will hold in the future.

Next, the report highlights and examines likely social environmental impacts of continuing business-as-usual (BAU). The continued pursuit of meat as a protein source will have numerous impacts on food safety, nutritional challenges, growing viral and bacterial epidemic risks, rising greenhouse gas emissions, increased water use and pollution, higher land use, and effects on the welfare of animals and workers. The heavy use of antimicrobial in meat and seafood production is also a concern, due to the threat of antibiotic resistance. The analysis provides contextualized metrics and estimations, broken down at country level.

Last, the report presents possible approaches and solutions to facilitate the transition to sustainable protein. The authors outline efforts that producers on the supply-side, consumers on the demand-side, and external actors such as regulators, investors and banks, can take across the value chain to address the negative externalities and promote more sustainable practices.

By describing the current trajectory and outlining measurable impacts, ARE’s report may help policy-makers, producers and investors to identify priorities for developing a more sustainable food system in Asia.

1. Growing wealth and higher urbanisation rates are driving increased demand for meat and seafood across Asia. The business-as-usual scenario indicates that Asia’s animal protein consumption will increase 33% by 2030, and 78% by 2050.
2. China will only account for 54% of meat and seafood demand by 2050. Pakistan, the Philippines, and Vietnam are set to lead the growth in demand from the rest of Asia. Conversely, Taiwan has shown a decline in per capita meat consumption, likely due to health awareness among higher income groups.
3. The production of feed, the clearing of land to produce feed, and digestion processes of animals emit greenhouse gases (GHG). Currently, GHG emissions of meat and seafood account for 15% of total GHG emissions in Asia. In a business-as-usual scenario, GHG emissions will grow almost 34% by 2030 and almost 90% by 2050.
4. Large tracts of land and high amounts of water are required for producing feed, for grazing, and for production of animal protein. This can lead to deforestation, environmental degradation through over-grazing, pollution, and conflicts with other users. In a business-as-usual scenario, the additional meat and seafood demand in Asia will require land equivalent to 70% of China’s size, increasing 81% by 2050 (33% by 2030). This will be coupled with 35% more water required by 2030, and 83% more by 2050.
5. The use of antimicrobials is common in pig and poultry to ward off disease and promote growth, contributing to an increase in antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria in humans. Asia currently accounts for 18% of global antimicrobial demand, which is predicted to grow 22% by 2030, and 44% by 2050.
6. On the supply side, producers can improve farm technology and introduce sustainable farming practices to facilitate the shift towards sustainable protein. Producers can also install energy saving devices, add supplements to feed or bio-digesters in sewerage treatment, transition away from antimicrobials, and improve feed sourcing and crop yields to reduce their environmental footprint. A 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is possible by changing from grassland to mixed production systems.
7. On the demand side, multinational food corporations can change their sustainability requirements for suppliers and make more rigorous environmental commitments. Consumers can change their individual diets to lower their environmental footprint, such as greater vegetarian and vegan meals.
8. Regulators can use carrots and sticks to balance the protein production system. They can promote healthier diets to reduce the environmental footprint and healthcare expenditure. They can also enforce penalties for environmental pollution with stronger monitoring, including requirements on more rigorous environmental impact studies prior to approving the conversion of arable land for protein production. Regulators can incentivise investment in solutions.
9. Investors and banks are increasingly considering the implications of their activities, which can create signals that spur change at protein production companies. In public equity, investors can establish dialogue with large listed companies, engaging on strategic options and the improvement of environmental disclosures. In private equity and bank financing, the upgrading of production facilities, such as manure processing technology, can help improve the sustainability of protein production.