The El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker is an interactive digital tool that projects the human cost of rising temperatures associated with El Niño events. It provides state and provincial-level data to identify where extreme heat poses the most significant threat to life, assisting finance professionals in assessing physical climate risks and health-related economic impacts across different regions.

Organisation behind the tool

The tracker was developed and is maintained by the Climate Impact Lab, a collaboration of economists, climate scientists, and data engineers. Key contributing institutions include the University of Chicago, the University of California, Berkeley, Rutgers University, and Rhodium Group.

What the tool does

The tool provides a global interactive map that visualises projected heat-related mortality. Key features include:

• Monthly projections of heat-related deaths for up to six months into the future.
• Historical data tracking heat-related fatalities since the beginning of a specific El Niño cycle.
• Granular data views at the state and provincial level rather than just national averages.
• Analysis of how climate change amplifies the natural variability of El Niño to create record-breaking temperature extremes.

Target audience

The primary audience includes policymakers, public health officials, and disaster response agencies. It is also designed for researchers, journalists, and private sector professionals seeking to understand geographic climate vulnerability.

Relevance to finance professionals

The tracker is applicable to various financial sectors through:

• Risk assessment – Assisting insurers and asset managers in identifying geographic regions with high exposure to heat-related health crises and potential labour productivity losses.
• ESG analysis – Providing quantitative data on the social impacts of environmental changes, useful for corporate sustainability reporting and social impact investing.
• Investment context – Informing long-term capital allocation by identifying regions where climate-driven health risks may affect sovereign or municipal credit stability.
• Market insights – Understanding how extreme heat events may disrupt infrastructure or supply chains in vulnerable provincial markets.