Current state of play for just transition in aviation

The aviation sector is significantly off-track in its decarbonisation efforts and, without intervention, is expected to consume 25% of the 1.5°C carbon budget by 2050. A just transition is necessary to balance climate action with social inclusion, ensuring net-zero emissions while supporting workforce stability and community well-being.

Workers in the aviation sector, which employs over 11 million people globally, will play a key role in implementing the transition. However, changes will disproportionately affect lower-paid employees and marginalised groups. Addressing taxation disparities in aviation fuel, such as the UK’s potential £6.7 billion revenue from kerosene taxation, could support equitable transition strategies.

Without demand management, aviation could still drive a 1.7°C temperature rise by 2050 despite decarbonisation efforts. This underscores the need for policy interventions, including investment in workforce training, reskilling, and social protections.

The equity and environmental challenges of aviation

Aviation is a major emitter, with 20 airports generating emissions equivalent to 58 coal plants in 2019. Despite its role in global connectivity, 80% of the world’s population has never flown, while 1% of frequent flyers account for over 50% of passenger emissions.

The transition to sustainable fuels carries environmental risks, including biodiversity loss and land-use pressures. Powering half of EU flights with e-fuels by 2050 would require 8 million hectares, while biofuels would need 33 million hectares—an area the size of Finland. Aviation’s transition must align with both climate and biodiversity objectives to mitigate environmental harm.

The role of alternative aviation fuels

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) vary in emissions impact, economic feasibility, and scalability. Currently, 85% of new SAF production will use Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), but concerns exist over fraud risks and reliance on limited waste-based feedstocks.

E-fuels, derived from renewable energy and green hydrogen, offer higher emissions reductions (75-98%) but require significant energy inputs. Policymakers must ensure SAFs align with environmental integrity standards while balancing investments in zero-emission aircraft solutions.

Just transition issues in the aviation fuel transition

Labour and human rights concerns arise in fuel production, particularly in regions exporting feedstocks to wealthier nations. The rapid expansion of biofuel supply chains risks perpetuating labour exploitation and environmental degradation.

The economic benefits of alternative fuel production remain unclear. Oil and gas companies may dominate, limiting opportunities for smaller renewable energy producers. Capital-intensive production could further entrench global wealth disparities.

Equity issues in the aviation fuel transition

High feedstock demand for SAFs intensifies competition for land, water, and energy resources. Biofuels derived from food crops threaten food security, particularly in developing nations where land conversion for fuel production could displace agricultural output.

Geographical disparities in feedstock distribution also pose equity challenges. The Global South may face exploitation risks as resource-rich nations supply aviation fuel to wealthier economies rather than prioritising local energy needs.

Environmental issues in the aviation fuel transition

Biofuel production drives deforestation and habitat loss. The EU’s RED III regulation limits high-risk feedstocks, but global inconsistencies in sustainability standards create regulatory gaps.

E-fuels require significant renewable energy inputs, accounting for 11% of projected EU renewable electricity demand by 2050. Critical mineral extraction for hydrogen electrolysers raises concerns over resource depletion and ethical sourcing.

The role of policy and regulation

Aviation emissions reporting lacks transparency. The broad classification of SAFs obscures the environmental and equity implications of different fuel types. Policymakers should establish clear sustainability criteria for aviation fuels to align with net-zero targets.

International regulations must integrate just transition principles, ensuring affected workers and communities benefit from policy frameworks. Governments should facilitate cross-sector collaboration, enabling a balanced approach to aviation decarbonisation.

Case study: Just transition, environment and equity in CORSIA eligible fuels

The ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) sets baseline emissions reductions for SAFs, but sustainability criteria vary across regions. The exclusion of certain biofuels in the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive has sparked legal challenges, highlighting tensions in global regulatory alignment.

Case study: Prioritising equitable community engagement in US clean hydrogen hubs

The US Government’s hydrogen hub initiative integrates equity requirements, ensuring community benefits and local employment opportunities. Similar frameworks could enhance aviation’s just transition by embedding worker protections and social equity considerations into decarbonisation strategies.

Overarching insights and recommendations

Aviation decarbonisation must integrate environmental, equity, and just transition considerations. Stakeholder engagement, supply chain transparency, and robust reporting frameworks will be essential for ensuring a fair and sustainable transition.

Investors should prioritise high-integrity fuel solutions while avoiding greenwashing risks. Policy advocacy must reinforce regulatory consistency, promoting responsible corporate disclosures and equitable workforce transitions.