From taking stock to taking action - How to implement the COP28 energy goals
The report outlines global energy transition goals, including tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. It provides guidance for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, emphasising the importance of international cooperation, investment in grids and storage, and just, equitable transitions away from fossil fuels. The report highlights key challenges and opportunities for accelerating clean energy adoption globally.
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OVERVIEW
Where do we stand today?
The report notes that global energy-related CO2 emissions reached a record high of around 38 gigatonnes in 2023, driven by insufficient clean energy adoption. Despite this, advancements in clean energy technologies, such as solar and wind, have helped mitigate emissions growth. However, clean energy transitions are unevenly distributed, with advanced economies and China accounting for 90% of new wind and solar capacity. Emerging markets and developing economies lag in investment, which presents a challenge for a just and equitable transition. The report calls for enhanced international cooperation and financial flows to bridge this gap.
Pathways to meet the COP28 outcome energy goals
The IEA presents two scenarios: full and partial implementation of COP28 goals. Full implementation would see tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling of efficiency improvements, leading to a 10 billion-tonne reduction in global emissions by 2030. This would also set the path for achieving net zero emissions by 2050. However, partial implementation, with inadequate investment in supporting infrastructure like grids and storage, risks higher reliance on fossil fuels and failure to meet emissions targets. The report emphasises that all countries must commit to comprehensive implementation, integrating the goals into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Guidebook to implement the COP28 energy goals
Triple renewables capacity: To meet this goal, renewable energy capacity must rise from 3,680 GW in 2022 to 11,500 GW by 2030. Achieving this requires adding 1,000 GW of renewables annually, a significant jump from the 560 GW added in 2023. A focus on grid expansion, storage solutions, and diversity of renewable sources is critical to maximise capacity.
Double energy efficiency: Doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements could cut emissions by 6.5 gigatonnes annually and reduce energy costs by 8% by 2030. However, current policy settings fall short, with efficiency gains at only 2% per year, well below the 4% target. The report calls for stronger efficiency policies in building retrofits, transport electrification, and industrial energy use, especially in emerging markets.
Accelerate the phase-down of unabated coal-fired power generation: The report identifies coal as a major contributor to global emissions. To meet the 1.5°C target, countries must phase down unabated coal power, retire existing coal plants early, and invest in alternative energy sources. A failure to do so would jeopardise the energy transition.
Transition away from fossil fuels: A just and orderly transition is required to shift away from fossil fuels. The report recommends policies that phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and encourage clean energy investment. By 2030, fossil fuel demand must decline by 130 exajoules to align with net zero pathways.
Accelerate zero- and low-emissions technologies: Expanding technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS), hydrogen, and bioenergy is essential. The report estimates that low-emissions hydrogen production must grow from 70 petajoules in 2022 to 7,930 petajoules by 2030, along with a 1.8-fold increase in nuclear capacity.
Transition in a just, orderly and equitable manner
To ensure a just transition, the report stresses the need for inclusive policies that address social and economic impacts. This includes supporting low-income households and vulnerable communities while phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. Investment in clean energy, particularly in developing economies, is key to an equitable transition, requiring a shift from the current imbalance where advanced economies and China account for over 80% of clean energy investments.
Integrate the COP28 outcome into NDCs and net zero emissions strategies
The report recommends that countries incorporate the COP28 goals into their NDCs due in 2025, which will guide global energy transitions for the next decade. These strategies should focus on aligning domestic energy policies with international climate goals to ensure long-term investment certainty and the achievement of net zero emissions by 2050.