The Global Critical Minerals Outlook is an annual series published by the International Energy Agency (IEA). It provides a comprehensive assessment of market, investment, technology, and policy developments across critical mineral supply chains. The series covers minerals essential to energy technologies, high-technology manufacturing, aerospace, defence, and digital systems, and tracks how supply chain concentration, geopolitical developments, and policy shifts affect global mineral security.

What the series tracks

Each edition assesses recent developments and provides medium- and long-term demand and supply projections for key energy minerals, including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements. The scope has expanded over time to include a broader range of critical minerals beyond energy applications, encompassing strategic minor minerals such as gallium, germanium, tungsten, and antimony, which serve the defence, semiconductor, and high-technology sectors.

The series tracks mineral market trends, price developments, investment flows, exploration activity, and sustainability performance. It examines supply concentration at both the mining and refining stages, demand from downstream sectors such as electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy, and electricity networks, and assesses the adequacy of supply pipelines relative to projected demand across multiple scenarios.

Recent editions have broadened their focus to include nuclear fuel supply chains, the strategic role of Latin America and the Caribbean in global mineral supply, and the policy and market frameworks needed to build diversified and resilient supply chains. The series also publishes an annual sustainability performance assessment based on corporate disclosures from major mining companies.

Methodology

Demand projections are built using a bottom-up model incorporating energy technology deployment trends, sub-technology shares, mineral intensity by application, and material efficiency improvements. The model draws on the IEA’s World Energy Outlook scenarios — the Current Policies Scenario, the Stated Policies Scenario, and the High Demand Scenario — with electric vehicle data updated from the Global EV Outlook.

Supply projections are derived from an asset-by-asset review of announced mining and refining projects globally. Two supply scenarios are presented: a base case, comprising existing operations and projects with secured permits, financing, or offtake agreements; and a high-production case, which adds projects at a reasonably advanced stage of development. Projects at early stages are excluded from both cases.

Sustainability performance is tracked through analysis of corporate disclosures from 24 major mining companies, covering greenhouse gas emissions, water use, biodiversity, gender balance, community investment, and responsible labour practices. Investment and financial performance trends are assessed using the same company set. Projection data are made accessible through the IEA Critical Minerals Data Explorer.

Key Findings and Themes from the 2026 Edition

The 2026 edition examines a period marked by heightened geopolitical tensions and a significant proliferation of export controls. China tripled the number of mineral tariff codes subject to export licensing between 2023 and April 2025, targeting rare earth elements, battery supply chain materials, and associated processing technologies. The Democratic Republic of the Congo introduced cobalt export quotas, Zimbabwe restricted lithium ore exports, and Mozambique required local processing of graphite. These developments transformed supply concentration from a theoretical vulnerability into an immediate economic security concern.

The conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz from February 2026, had significant knock-on effects for mineral supply chains, particularly for aluminium, sulphur, sulphuric acid, and helium. Disruptions to sulphuric acid supply raised processing costs for copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths, with acid costs becoming the largest cash cost component in some operations.

Critical mineral prices rebounded in 2025 and early 2026 after several years of decline. Supply concentration in refining continued to increase for most minerals, with China and Indonesia accounting for over three-quarters of refined supply growth across key energy minerals. Supply gaps between projected demand and anticipated supply persist through 2035 for copper and lithium, and a new deficit has emerged for cobalt as a result of the DRC export quota.

The 2026 edition includes new analysis addressing pathways to resilient supply chains, encompassing emergency preparedness frameworks, strategic stockpiling governance models, and policy and market tools to de-risk investment in diversified projects. It also examines technology, equipment, and workforce gaps that constrain diversification efforts, and provides a dedicated special focus chapter on Latin America and the Caribbean.

Relevance and uses for finance professionals

The series provides finance professionals with a structured, data-driven framework for assessing supply security risks, investment requirements, and market dynamics across critical mineral supply chains. Quantified supply-demand gaps, capital expenditure requirements, and analysis of cost structures across geographies support project evaluation, infrastructure investment assessment, and risk management.

The assessment of downstream economic exposure — including the estimated economic value at risk from export controls on rare earths and battery-grade graphite — provides a basis for quantifying the potential impact of supply disruptions on end-use industries such as automotive, electronics, defence, and data centres. Analysis of the downstream price impact of mineral price changes informs cost pass-through assessments across battery, magnet, and infrastructure equipment value chains.

Public financing trends, including government commitments, sovereign fund structures, concessional lending, and price support mechanisms, are tracked in detail, providing relevant context for evaluating the investment landscape for critical mineral projects. The series also monitors the evolving policy environment, bilateral agreements, and multilateral frameworks that shape market access and project bankability.

For investors and analysts covering mining, energy, and technology sectors, the series offers consistent, updated projections and scenario analysis against which to benchmark company strategies, assess capital allocation, and evaluate exposure to geopolitical and supply disruption risks.