Introduction

Europe’s transition towards sustainable consumption and production (SCP) is currently navigating significant uncertainties. Global supply chains, digital platforms and geopolitical conditions are evolving at a speed that challenges existing policy frameworks. Environmental limits are tightening, with an estimated 75% of terrestrial and 66% of marine environments significantly altered by human activities. This report identifies emerging issues that could shape the European landscape, mapping trajectories that remain uncertain but carry significant consequences for sustainability transitions.

Consumption – between addiction, extremes, and reinvention

Contemporary consumption is increasingly mediated by digital environments designed to keep users engaged and stimulate desires. Design patterns like infinite scrolling and personalised recommendations trigger neurochemical reward responses, involving hormones such as dopamine, serotonin and endorphins. Research has uncovered 1,818 manipulative interface designs, or ‘dark patterns’, across thousands of e-commerce sites. Automated traffic is also a major factor, with bots exceeding human traffic for the first time in 2024, accounting for 51% of all web activity.

Consumption patterns remain highly unequal, a phenomenon described as the ‘privilege of pollution’. The wealthiest 10% of the global population, defined as those earning more than €42,980 per year, have been responsible for 65% of global warming since 1990. If the entire global population emitted at the same level as this group, temperatures would have risen by 2.9°C since 1990 instead of the observed 0.61°C. Gender-specific data also shows that women’s CO2 emissions from food and transport are 26% lower than those of men, often due to higher meat consumption and car use amongst males.

To address these inequalities, new policy approaches are being developed, such as ‘data-driven differentiation’. For example, Germany’s ‘Persona Analysis 2.0’ supports municipal heat transitions by grouping households into 16 fictional personas based on income, building type and energy source. Other mechanisms include tiered pricing, such as the German energy price brake, which capped prices for 80% of a household’s annual gas consumption.

Production – strategic autonomy for Europe?

The quest for strategic autonomy is driving a renaissance of mining within European territory. The Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) sets ambitious targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling by 2030 to reduce dependency on imports of minerals like copper, nickel and lithium. Technological innovations, including AI-driven exploration, are expected to improve mineral discovery rates by 20–30%. However, these activities risk impacting sensitive ecosystems, such as the joint German-Dutch N05-A gas extraction project near the ecologically sensitive Wadden Sea, which aims to extract between 4.5 and 13 billion cubic metres of gas.

The dominance of large technology companies, or ‘super-entities’, presents a dual challenge. While their infrastructure can optimise resource use, their energy consumption is skyrocketing. Data centres for major tech firms are projected to grow their energy demand by 19% annually through to 2029, reaching 260 terawatt-hours. Furthermore, the convergence of AI and biotechnology is creating new fields like bio-computing and brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). For instance, BCIs have reached 97% accuracy in translating brain signals into speech for patients with severe disabilities, yet they raise profound ethical concerns regarding privacy and human identity.

Current production cycles are also accelerating. AI capabilities are now doubling every three to five months, leading to a mismatch where innovation occurs in months while regulation and ethical frameworks evolve over years. This ‘governance lag’ has shifted the dominant norm from ‘regulate before deployment’ to ‘deploy first, regulate later’.

Policy at several crossroads

European policymakers face critical decisions across six key areas. Digitalisation and AI offer efficiency but risk compromising privacy and encouraging overconsumption. Addressing inequalities is essential for a just transition, as high-emission lifestyles remain concentrated amongst privileged groups. Strategic autonomy requires balancing resource security with environmental integrity, particularly as revived mining industries may conflict with circular economy goals.

Social practices and behavioural changes are central to achieving SCP, though market incentives still favour growth over sufficiency. Managing systemic risks from emerging technologies requires proactive governance and the application of the precautionary principle. Finally, the integration of production and consumption policy, often through ‘prosumption’ models, is seen as vital for creating resilient, circular economies that align with planetary limits.