Research framing

This research examines emerging market dynamics affecting forest-risk commodities in the three largest contiguous rainforest regions: the Amazon, the Congo Basin, and Southeast Asia-Oceania. The study identifies medium-term trends from global trade and technological developments until 2030 and 2035. It analyses land-use effects through three pathways: Pressured Expansion (lax governance), Managed Transition (controlled expansion), and Resource-Light Shift (circular economy and sufficiency).

Tropical rainforest regions, deforestation and forest risk commodities

Tropical rainforests have lost 830,000 km2 of their area since 2002. In 2024, loss reached a record 67,000 km2, equalling 18 football fields per minute. In the Amazon, 630,000 km2 of tree cover was lost between 2001 and 2022, with cattle pasture driving 83% of clearing. The Congo Basin lost almost 100,000 km2 between 2001 and 2024, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) accounting for 78%. Indonesia lost nearly one-quarter of its primary forest between 1991 and 2020, though recent rates have fluctuated near 2030 zero-deforestation pathways.

Energy systems

Surging demand for minerals to support the energy transition poses high risks. A typical electric vehicle (EV) requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car. Under a business-as-usual scenario, global EV fleet mineral consumption may result in cumulative deforestation of 1,500 km2 to 4,700 km2 by 2050. Bioenergy also increases pressure; Indonesia introduced a B40 biodiesel mandate in 2025, aiming for B50 in 2026. Brazil mandated B15 biodiesel and B30 bioethanol blending in August 2025. In Indonesia, wood pellet co-firing policies could fuel annual deforestation rates of up to 21,000 km2.

Food systems

Agri-commodity production remains the primary driver of deforestation. Livestock agriculture occupies approximately 70% of the world’s agricultural land. The anticipated 10.2% growth in Brazilian beef production by 2034 could lead to ~57,000 km2 of Amazon deforestation. Conversely, a 30% reduction in conventional meat production in high-income regions could save more than 3 million km2 of land. Demand for ultra-processed foods (UPFs) is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.48% through 2034, further boosting demand for palm oil and wood pulp for packaging.

Fast-turnover products and emerging forest-risk trends

Consumerism in packaging and fashion is accelerating forest loss. The viscose market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2025 to 2032. Indonesia’s wood pulp sector faces high risk, with one mill under construction in North Kalimantan requiring 3.9 million m3 of wood annually. Gold prices reached record highs in 2025, incentivising expansion; estimates suggest an additional ~375 km2 of gold mining area in the Brazilian Amazon by 2028 and ~530 km2 in Peru’s Madre de Dios region by 2029. Timber illegality remains high, with 70-90% of Peruvian timber estimated as illegal.

Key underlying factors and cross-cutting issues

Infrastructure development is a fundamental enabler of forest loss. Road density is the strongest correlate of deforestation; researchers identified 3.46 million km of roads in the Brazilian Amazon in 2022. Major projects like PNG’s 16,000 km road network could open 10% of the country’s surface area. In 2024, 146 environmental and human rights defenders were killed. Financial flows also sustain these drivers; between 2016 and June 2024, US$395 billion in credit was provided to forest-risk sectors, with 69% flowing to South America.

Conclusions and recommendations

Governments must legally designate no-go zones and mandate free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) for all commercial projects. Formalising land tenure is essential to end speculative clearing. It is recommended that governments phase out fossil fuel projects and unsustainable first-generation biofuels. Supply chain companies should implement robust deforestation-free policies and ensure upstream-to-downstream traceability. Finally, a shift towards a resource-light model through circular economy strategies and lower-impact diets is necessary to avoid locking rainforest basins into a decade of irreversible loss.