1. Main

The report analyses how climate extremes are increasingly driving food price spikes and creating wider societal risks. It highlights that 2024 was the hottest year on record, exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Rising food prices are now one of the most frequently reported impacts of climate change. Econometric evidence shows abnormal heat raises food prices through reduced yields, supply shortages and inflation. While aggregate prices adjust slowly, individual food items can experience sharp, short-term spikes following extreme weather. The paper places recent events in a global climatological context and assesses their broader economic and social implications.

2. Recent food price spikes from unprecedented climate extremes

The authors document widely reported cases since 2022 where food price increases coincided with extreme heat, drought or heavy rainfall, supported by official statistics. Many events exceeded all historical climate precedents prior to 2020. Yield losses were the primary driver, though labour heat stress, transport disruptions and infrastructure damage also played a role in some cases.
In East Asia, 2024 heatwaves led to Korean cabbage prices rising 70% year-on-year by September, Japanese rice prices increasing 48%, and vegetable prices in China rising 30% between June and August. In the United States, drought in California and Arizona in 2022 contributed to an 80% annual increase in vegetable producer prices by November. In Europe, droughts in 2022–23 drove EU olive oil prices around 50% higher by January 2024.
Climate extremes also affected global commodity markets. Unprecedented heat and drought in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, producing nearly 60% of global cocoa, contributed to a roughly 300% rise in cocoa prices by April 2024. Similar effects were observed in coffee markets following extremes in Vietnam and Brazil, illustrating global price transmission.

3. A catalyst for wider societal risks

Climate-driven food price spikes worsen food insecurity, particularly for low-income households that spend a higher share of income on food. The report notes regressive effects, with the lowest income quintile in the United States spending about 33% of income on food versus 8% for the highest. Impacts are likely stronger in hotter and poorer countries.
Health risks increase when households shift towards cheaper, less nutritious diets or when prices of fruit and vegetables rise. This can exacerbate malnutrition, diet-related diseases and mental health issues, increasing pressure on health systems and public spending.
Food price volatility also feeds into headline inflation, complicating central bank price stability mandates, especially in developing economies where food has a higher inflation weight. Persistent climate-related inflation may weaken policy credibility, while interest rate responses risk slowing growth after extreme events. Evidence also links food price inflation to social unrest and political instability, including shifts in election outcomes and rising support for populist movements.

4. Focus points for research and policy

Emissions reduction is identified as the primary lever to limit long-term risk, but adaptation is required given unavoidable warming. Seasonal to multi-annual climate forecasts could provide early warnings for yields and prices, supporting producer decisions and government and central bank responses, although barriers to uptake remain.
Long-term adaptation options such as crop switching and irrigation face constraints from water scarcity, competing demands and political feasibility. The report calls for multidisciplinary research to better trace cross-sectoral risks, assess trade and subsidy roles, and identify effective adaptation strategies. Policies that improve household resilience, including index-linked social security and targeted nutritional safety nets, are highlighted as ways to reduce downstream health and political risks.

5. Future outlook

With current policies implying 2.2–3.4 °C of warming, unprecedented climate conditions are expected to become more frequent. Food systems are increasingly exposed to conditions beyond historical experience. The report concludes that climate-driven food price spikes are likely to become a recurring catalyst for wider societal risks, reinforcing the urgency of mitigation, adaptation and integrated policy responses.