Executive summary

The aviation sector needs to scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to address its significant CO2 emissions. SAF can reduce emissions by up to 99% compared to fossil jet fuel. However, current production meets only 30-40% of the projected 2030 demand. Scaling SAF requires overcoming technological, financial, and regulatory barriers. Europe, the US, and the Middle East face unique challenges and opportunities in SAF adoption.

Introduction

Global collaboration, investment, and supportive policies are necessary to bridge the SAF demand-supply gap. The aviation industry currently contributes 2-3% of global CO2 emissions, with projections suggesting a 50% increase in fuel demand by 2050. SAF, which can be integrated into existing fuel infrastructure, is critical for decarbonisation.

Scaling SAF for Europe

Europe’s SAF adoption faces challenges such as limited agricultural land, high energy costs, and low bio-feedstock availability. Despite these, Europe leads in regulatory initiatives, with mandates like ReFuelEU aiming for up to 70% SAF by 2050. Key actions include collaboration on a regional SAF supply strategy, ensuring transparent SAF properties, and committing to long-term agreements to de-risk investments. Investments in SAF R&D are crucial to improving cost and sustainability. Clear standards, aligned incentives, and airport-specific SAF incentives are necessary for scaling SAF in Europe.

Scaling SAF for the US

The US, a significant aviation fuel consumer, aims for 10% SAF in its fuel mix by 2030, supported by federal initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and state-level incentives. However, the lack of a uniform carbon price and regulatory support for SAF presents challenges. Key actions include robust collaboration across industries for risk-sharing and supply-demand alignment, investing in SAF R&D to maintain a competitive position, and enhancing credibility for unlocking private financing. Policy actions include increasing public-sector engagement, defining clear SAF carbon accounting standards, and extending the duration and availability of incentives to support long-term investments.

Scaling SAF for the Middle East

The Middle East has a strategic advantage due to its fossil fuel reserves and aviation hub status. However, SAF activities remain small-scale, with a focus on low-carbon aviation fuel (LCAF) and co-processing solutions. Key actions include integrating energy and aviation industries to drive SAF supply, transparent accounting and reporting of SAF usage, and evaluating co-processing and LCAF in refineries to quickly reduce emissions. The region is well-positioned for power-to-liquid (PtL) due to cheap renewable electricity, but clear regulatory definitions and incentives are needed. Governments should develop SAF accounting standards and provide financial support, while raising public awareness and educating stakeholders about SAF benefits.

Conclusion: what will it take to scale SAF globally?

Global SAF scaling requires rapid technology adoption, strategic partnerships, and supportive regulations. Establishing net-zero corridors between production centres and demand hubs is essential. Collaboration among public and private stakeholders, harmonised global regulations, and robust financial incentives are key to creating a global SAF market and driving demand. The success of SAF scaling hinges on overcoming technological barriers, securing funding, and fostering regulatory environments that support sustainable aviation.