Abstract

The research document states that the ongoing El Nino is already the strongest in the modern record. This event is contributing to increasing global climate anomalies, including the poleward shifting of climate zones, increased rainfall extremes, and more rapid flash droughts and fires. Additionally, marine heatwaves are noted as a result of accelerating human-made global warming. The authors suggest that the abnormal strength of the current El Nino is itself likely human-driven. The data and graphs supporting these observations are continually updated on the authors’ website and Substack platform.

Super-duper El Nino And The Bigger Problem

The current El Nino has progressed significantly, with usual measures blowing past prior record levels. Although the maximum effects of the event are expected to occur several months in the future, the authors’ preferred metric—the heat anomaly in the upper 300 metres of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean—already exceeds the levels of the 1997-98 super El Nino. It is highlighted that the 2023-24 El Nino, which was responsible for extreme global warming, was only a moderate event by comparison. The more common Nino3.4 metric, which measures sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific, also far exceeds prior values. However, this ocean skin temperature is more affected by global warming than the heat content at 300 metres. Both tropical ocean heat content and skin temperature are considered relevant metrics as they affect El Nino strength via heat exhalation and the Bjerknes feedback respectively.

This super-duper El Nino arrives on a planet already influenced by human-made global warming, leading to increased heatwaves at sea and on land. Marine heatwaves tend to be more extreme during the summer when the ocean surface mixed layer is thinnest and winds are calmest. These events have increased over the past century, with their intensity recently increasing faster in coincidence with the acceleration of global warming. Observations show that temperature change is twice as large over land as it is over the ocean. During the 2023-24 El Nino, land temperature reached +2.4°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean and is projected to approach +2.7°C in 2027, which is almost +5°F.

The report warns that the consequences of high temperatures on humans have been underestimated due to a failure to account for age-dependent heat tolerance. People over 60 years of age are much more vulnerable to high temperatures than younger populations. It is estimated that 22% of the global population over 60 is exposed to unsafe temperature levels for at least one month per year at the recent global temperature level of approximately +1.5°C. Excess deaths in Europe this summer have already surpassed 25,000 and continue to rise. The worst-affected regions include South Asia, the Gulf nations, and Africa—specifically India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Niger—where large populations face high poverty levels and limited access to cooling. Research estimates that each degree Celsius of global warming adds a month of intolerable heat for one billion people.

Global warming is also causing a shifting of climate zones, meaning living spaces occupied based on 20th-century climates may not be suitable for habitation in the 21st century. Extreme heat and drought anomalies in the Mediterranean, neighbouring European regions, and the Southwest United States, where Lake Mead and Lake Powell levels are falling, will continue to worsen unless human-made climate forcings are reversed. The report notes that climate sensitivity is significantly higher than the best estimate of the IPCC. The proximate cause of the accelerated warming rate is the doubling of Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), which is not declining. This is driven by satellite-observed absorbed solar radiation (ASR) and longwave thermal emission to space (LW).

Appendix

The appendix includes the Nino3.4 temperature index using NOAA OISST V2.1 data, with the red curve representing the year 2026. This index tracks the daily sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120–170°W). The data confirms that 2026 temperatures are significantly higher than historical baselines from 1982-2010 and 1991-2020, as well as previous super El Nino years including 1982, 1997, and 2015.