The deployment of lithium-ion batteries is expanding at a rapid pace, with the global market size increasing from 180 GWh in 2020 to 1,100 GWh in 2024, and projected to exceed 3,500 GWh by 2030. This growth presents significant waste management challenges, as approximately 1.2 million electric vehicle (EV) batteries are expected to reach their end-of-life in 2030, rising to 14 million by 2040 and 50 million by 2050. Battery circularity, encompassing recycling, reuse, and repurposing, is a critical technology option to manage these volumes and recover valuable materials like lithium, nickel, cobalt, and copper.

Introduction

Global lithium demand increased by approximately 30% year-on-year in 2024, highlighting the mounting pressure on primary extraction. Supply chains remain highly concentrated geographically, with a single country currently dominating the refined production of 19 out of 20 strategic minerals analyzed. For instance, China accounts for approximately 70% of global refined lithium production and nearly 80% of cobalt refining. Battery circularity offers a vital pathway to diversify these supplies and enhance resilience. Projections suggest that by 2050, secondary supply from recycling could reduce primary supply requirements by 40% for copper and cobalt, and 25% for lithium and nickel.

Current policy frameworks are reshaping the global sector. The European Union’s Battery Regulation, which entered into force in August 2023, introduces lifecycle requirements including mandatory minimum recycled content shares and a digital battery passport slated for implementation from February 2027. Additionally, the EU will classify waste lithium-ion batteries and black mass as hazardous waste from September 2026, prohibiting exports to non-OECD countries to ensure domestic feedstock availability. Other regions, such as China and various US states including California, have also established formal legal frameworks for battery recovery and extended producer responsibility.

Battery circularity patenting trends

Innovation in battery circularity has accelerated sharply over the past two decades. Since 2017, international patent families (IPFs) in this field have recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42%, vastly outpacing the 2% average recorded across all technical fields combined. Asia has emerged as the leading region for innovation, with Asian applicants accounting for 63% of IPFs in 2023. China’s share of IPFs rose from 5% in 2013 to 29% in 2023, driven largely by an increasing trend among Chinese patentors to seek protection outside their domestic market. When including all national applications, Chinese patents averaged around 70% of the global total in the five years leading to 2023.

The most active applicants are predominantly Asian industrial firms. Brunp, a subsidiary of the battery manufacturer CATL, is currently the global innovation leader, filing more than double the number of IPFs in the 2020–2023 period as Toyota. Other major filers include LG, Sumitomo Metal Mining, and JX Nippon Mining & Metals. European entities account for roughly 20% of IPFs, with BASF and Umicore ranking in joint 6th place globally. European innovation shows particular strength in collection and pre-processing technologies, accounting for 34% of IPFs in remote handling and 30% in isolation and immobilisation.

Special focus: refining of critical metals for batteries

Refining technologies for battery-critical materials have also seen impressive growth, though they remain less dynamic than the battery recycling sector. Key innovations include direct lithium extraction (DLE), which allows for the processing of unconventional brine resources with improved speed and lower water consumption. Other significant trends include the reprocessing of mine tailings and the development of novel synthetic graphite production methods to reduce the emissions footprint of anode materials.

Patenting in the refining sector is highly concentrated; Chinese national patent families surged in 2016 and now account for roughly 90% of all national refining patents globally. In contrast to the recycling field, countries such as Australia and Canada contribute a more significant share of international patent families in refining, reflecting their strategic roles in the extraction and midstream treatment of raw materials critical for the global energy transition.

Conclusions and outlook

Battery circularity is maturing from a nascent technology phase into a key pillar of global resource strategy. While recycling alone will not eliminate the need for primary extraction in the coming decades, it provides a crucial secondary resource that mitigates environmental impacts and supports the relocation of industrial capacity within the value chain. A significant challenge remains the “valley of death” for innovators: a gap between the scaling of recycling infrastructure and the availability of end-of-life feedstock. For example, existing recycling plants in China currently face an average utilisation rate of only 20% due to significant overcapacity.

The report concludes that regions successfully attracting investment will be those that manage policy challenges effectively. This includes providing patient capital and government funding to test and refine promising technical approaches. Continued innovation is necessary to further reduce recycling costs, ensure adaptation to the latest battery chemistries, and address the energy intensity of processing steps such as hydrometallurgy. Strengthening domestic manufacturing ecosystems, particularly in Europe, will be vital to securing long-term supply chain resilience and industrial competitiveness.