Introduction

The report examines climate-induced food price inflation (“climateflation”) in the UK, focusing on how climate shocks interact with global supply chains and domestic vulnerabilities. UK food inflation exceeded 30% by Q3 2024, driven by climate stressors alongside Brexit, COVID-19 and geopolitical shocks. As the UK imports nearly half of its food, rising global temperatures and extreme weather increasingly transmit inflation into domestic prices, with preparation for adaptation assessed as insufficient.

Methodology

The analysis integrates climate data, trade statistics, input–output tables and household microsimulation modelling. Climate anomalies are linked to UK food inflation using Copernicus and ONS data. Trade exposure is assessed via UN Comtrade and DEFRA data. Two emissions scenarios are modelled to 2050: a low-emissions pathway (SSP1-2.6) and a high-emissions pathway (SSP5-8.5). Household impacts are estimated using an Economic Microsimulation Model calibrated with Family Resources Survey data.

The global picture: Climate catastrophe and food prices

Global temperature anomalies have risen sharply, with a strengthening correlation between global heat and UK food CPI since 2004. Heat stress and drought risks to staple crops are projected to escalate by 2050, with up to 90% of rice cultivation exposed to severe heat stress and more than 50% of wheat output facing drought risk under high emissions. These supply contractions raise prices and reduce quantities. Globally, food prices are projected to rise by 30–50 percentage points by 2050 due to heat extremes, with spillovers affecting net food importers such as the UK.

UK food supply chain

The UK’s food system is highly exposed to climate shocks through import dependence and concentrated domestic production. Key imports from Europe, South America and Asia face increasing drought, heat and flood risks, notably in Spain, France, Brazil and India. Export controls and rising trade restrictions further heighten vulnerability. Domestically, production is regionally concentrated, particularly in East Anglia and Lincolnshire, where drought and flooding threaten cereals, fruit and vegetables. Extreme rainfall in 2022–23 reduced yields of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape by nearly 20%, reinforcing import reliance and price volatility.

Household income

Food inflation disproportionately affects lower-income households, which allocate a higher share of spending to essentials such as bread, cereals and meat. Heatwave-driven price rises could require the average household to spend an additional £917–£1,247 annually by 2050, equivalent to £26–£35 billion in aggregate losses. The burden is greatest for the lowest income deciles, reflecting limited capacity to absorb higher costs.

Modelling climate shocks food inflation and poverty (MSM simulations)

Under the low-emissions scenario, cumulative food inflation reaches around 25% by 2050; under high emissions, it reaches 34%. For lower-income households with weekly food spending of £40, this implies real budget losses of £10–£13.60 per week. Microsimulation results suggest an additional 824,285 people could be pushed into poverty under low emissions and up to 951,383 under high emissions, with children and working-age adults most affected and regional impacts concentrated in the East of England and North West.

Recommendations

The report argues for structural reform to improve resilience. Proposed measures include providing a universal basket of basic food essentials, introducing flexible price controls during inflationary periods, establishing national and regional buffer stocks, and creating publicly funded diners to ensure access to affordable nutrition. Longer-term actions include investment in regenerative and agroecological farming, long-term public contracts with sustainable producers, and piloting a basic income for farmers to support resilience and workforce retention.