The Ocean framework: An investor guide to navigating ocean risks and opportunities
This investor guide examines ocean-related risks and opportunities across nine ocean-dependent sectors. It outlines five key drivers of ocean degradation, introduces a seven-step portfolio assessment framework, and provides sector-specific engagement guidance for fisheries, aquaculture and maritime transportation.
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OVERVIEW
Part 1: Diving into the seascape
The ocean covers 71% of the Earth’s surface, generates over half of the oxygen in the atmosphere, and underpins annual economic activity valued at $3–6 trillion (p.7). Since the early 1900s, it has absorbed up to 30% of atmospheric carbon emissions and over 90% of excess planetary heat, keeping global surface temperatures over 35ºC cooler than they would otherwise be (p.9).
Five key drivers of ocean degradation threaten ocean health: climate change (manifesting as warming, deoxygenation and acidification); over-exploitation (38% of fish stocks are overfished and a further 50% fully exploited (p.13)); habitat loss (just 15% of coastlines remain in their natural state (p.15)); marine pollution; and ineffective governance. As of 2025, seven of the nine planetary boundaries have been crossed (p.10), and the Ocean Living Planet Index declined by 56% between 1970 and 2010 (p.10).
Major policy milestones include the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies (in force September 2025) and the High Seas Treaty (in force January 2026). The Kunming-Montréal Global Biodiversity Framework calls for the protection of 30% of the ocean by 2030.
Part 2: Why ocean sustainability is relevant to investors
Ocean-based activities emit at least 11% of total global CO₂ emissions (p.18). The blue economy contributes an estimated 3.5% to the global economy and was conservatively valued at USD 2.6 trillion in 2020; if the ocean were a country, the OECD states its economy would be ranked 5th largest in the world (p.21). The OECD estimates the blue economy has potential to quadruple by 2050 relative to 1995 (p.22), but under a business-as-usual scenario, WWF estimates USD 8.4 trillion in assets and revenues is at risk by 2035 (p.22).
SDG14 (Life Below Water) is the most underfunded of all SDGs, requiring an additional USD 174 billion per year to 2030 (p.23). Investors face physical, operational, transition and reputational risks. Coastal real estate and infrastructure face the highest sector-level value at risk (USD 3,980 billion), followed by fisheries (USD 2,890 billion) and ports and shipping (USD 874 billion) (p.36).
Investors are recommended to incorporate ocean considerations into climate and nature policies; use the Ocean Framework to assess portfolios; engage with priority companies; improve transparency; and redirect capital towards sustainable blue economy activities.
Part 3: The ocean framework
The Ocean Framework is a seven-step, sector-agnostic decision-making process to identify, assess and prioritise ocean-related risks and opportunities across portfolios. Steps progress from objective setting and sector screening through impact and dependency heatmapping, company prioritisation, interface with sensitive locations, company-level assessment, and risk and opportunity identification. The framework aligns with existing tools including TNFD, SBTN and ENCORE.
Part 4: Engagement guidance
Engagement guidance is provided for sector-agnostic use across all asset classes, and for three high-priority sectors: fisheries, aquaculture, and maritime transportation (including shipping and cruise tourism). Questions cover governance, strategy, risk and impact management, and targets and metrics, aligned with TNFD reporting requirements.