Introduction

He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission prepared this 2026 assessment to monitor the implementation and effectiveness of Aotearoa New Zealand’s first national adaptation plan. The report highlights that adaptation progress is not keeping pace with escalating climate risks, with work remaining insufficient to ensure resilience into future decades. Current direct costs to central government and insurers from natural hazards are estimated at approximately $4 billion per year, which significantly slows the economy. The second national climate change risk assessment released in April 2026 emphasises that impacts are already seriously affecting people and systems, requiring focused action now to reduce long-term harm and cost.

Advice and recommendations for action

The Commission identifies six foundational areas for immediate action. First, central government must establish funding and financing pathways to enable adaptation at a local level. There is currently not enough resource available to support proactive adaptation, and clarity is needed on what government will and will not fund. Second, legislative requirements for local adaptation planning must be implemented with appropriate tools and guidance. Third, climate change must be embedded into key legislation governing the natural and built environment, ensuring alignment across the Resource Management Act reforms and the Building Act 2004. Fourth, the government should coordinate and invest in building national climate risk information to assist informed decision-making. Fifth, funding and financing mechanisms for iwi/Māori must be established to support efforts in line with tikanga. Finally, the next national adaptation plan in 2028 should be a stronger driver of action with prioritised, outcomes-focused goals.

Approach to assessment

The assessment focuses on national-level monitoring of the Government’s planning. It evaluates progress based on 20 objectives set out in the 2022 plan and its 2025 updates. The methodology considers the quality of planning, the integration of iwi/Māori perspectives through Pae Tawhiti Pae Tata, and the actual delivery of actions on the ground. The Commission highlights that while there is no single correct way to plan, essential steps include building shared understanding, identifying options, and monitoring progress for responsive management.

Progress towards achieving objectives

Overall progress is deemed insufficient. Under system-wide objectives, some progress has been made in clarifying roles, but a lack of clarity on funding remains a major barrier. In the natural environment domain, actions to support healthy ecosystems are underway, but there is limited evidence of sustained reductions in climate risk. Regarding homes and buildings, risks are currently outpacing adaptation action, and building standards do not fully account for projected increases in climate extremes. Quantitative data shows that 29,000 people are currently directly exposed to coastal flooding, with 7,600 or 26% of them experiencing high social vulnerability. Additionally, 142,000 people could be cut off from essential services due to coastal flooding. In Auckland, 183,000 residents are exposed to inland flooding, while 63% of Wairoa’s population faces similar risks.

Pae Tawhiti Pae Tata

Iwi/Māori are leading significant adaptation initiatives, including marae flood mapping and freshwater resilience projects. However, a lack of consistent government support limits their ability to lead effectively. Funding for the Māori Climate Platform is ending, with all projects scheduled for completion by 30 June 2026, and no replacement mechanism has been identified. This creates uncertainty regarding the Crown’s obligations under Te Tiriti o Waitangi. The Commission notes that iwi/Māori often face higher borrowing costs, with Māori firms paying an average of 0.5 percentage point more for borrowing than non-Māori firms. Funding for the Māori Climate Platform was reduced by 33% in Budget 2025, further increasing the resource gap.

Quality of the plan

The assessment finds significant gaps in the plan’s architecture. Current planning does not set out goals based on a clearly explained understanding of climate risk, and there is no clear link between specific actions and the most significant risks. The plan lacks measurable, outcomes-focused targets and timeframes, making it difficult to track progress beyond process-based milestones. The National Adaptation Framework also lacks these essential elements. The Commission scores several areas of the plan’s architecture as “insufficient,” particularly regarding monitoring processes and clear links to priority risks.

Implementation and delivery

Progress across outcome areas remains uneven. Gaps are notable in actions focused on Māori-led adaptation, nature-based resilience, and financial system preparedness. Funding constraints and changing government priorities have delayed or discontinued some actions. While 21% of active actions have an amber rating, indicating moderate confidence, many actions related to local government tools have been discontinued. There is no clear system for monitoring how sector-specific plans, such as the Health National Adaptation Plan, are being implemented. The Commission calls for improved transparency and more consistent delivery milestones in agency reporting.