Why a new FCV strategy?

Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) are now primary determinants of global development outcomes. In 2024, for the first time, FCV-affected countries accounted for more than half of the people living in extreme poverty. The nature of conflict has transformed, affecting countries at all income levels through interstate wars, coups, and organised crime. These dynamics overlap with global stresses such as climate change and debt distress, creating mutually reinforcing risks. Spillovers through refugee movements and disrupted trade often turn local conflicts into regional crises.

Job creation is identified as the best way to durably raise incomes and dignity in these settings. Over 257 million youth are expected to enter the workforce in currently classified FCV-affected countries by 2035. Harnessing their aspirations is essential for economic progress and reducing social tensions fueled by lack of opportunity. Between FY15-19 and FY20-24, IDA and IBRD financing nearly tripled in nominal terms to these regions, and in FY25, 51 percent of IDA financing was directed to FCV-affected countries.

Operationalising four strategic shifts

The strategy focuses on four shifts to improve effectiveness. Firstly, the World Bank Group (WBG) aims to anticipate better by revamping its country identification methodology. A new classification framework distinguishes between countries in acute crisis, countries in transition, conflict-affected countries, and countries at risk of conflict onset. This systematic risk management approach incentivises country teams to surface risks early and adjust programmes in real time.

Secondly, the WBG will adopt a differentiated approach, calibrating financing based on a country’s track record and the potential for lasting development impact. This includes identifying “trajectory-shifting actions” that address core drivers of fragility. Thirdly, the strategy seeks to deliver as One WBG on the jobs agenda. This involves strengthening collaboration between IDA/IBRD, IFC, and MIGA to support micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which dominate FCV economies but face constraints regarding informality and access to finance.

Finally, the WBG will enhance its knowledge, operational toolkit, and staffing. This includes developing a public “knowledge compendium” and strengthening Third Party Implementation (TPI) to work with a wider array of partners, including local NGOs. To attract talent, the WBG will introduce a “Facetime Index” to measure time spent in FCV locations and recognise FCV experience as a critical factor in career progression. From FY27, the Young Professionals Programme will include a mandatory eight-month field rotation.

Implementing corporate and sectoral initiatives

The strategy leverages flagship initiatives to scale impact. These include Mission 300, which aims to connect 300 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa to electricity by 2030, and AgriConnect, which supports 300 million farmers. Other targets include the Water Forward initiative for 400 million people, the SP500 social protection goal for 500 million people, and a health target to reach 1.5 billion people.

Climate and FCV engagements will be better integrated, noting that nine of the ten countries most vulnerable to climate risks were FCV-affected in 2025. The WBG will also focus on forced displacement, addressing the needs of over 40 million refugees and over 70 million Internally Displaced People (IDPs). Furthermore, Metals and Minerals Compacts will be deployed in countries with natural resource endowments to strengthen transparency and regulatory capacity.

Holding ourselves accountable

Management will report to the Board on progress annually throughout the 2026-2030 implementation period. Progress will be tracked against institutional outcomes and the Corporate Scorecard. A formal Mid-Term Review is scheduled for the end of FY2028, with an Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluation occurring at the end of the strategy period. This feedback loop is intended to ensure corrective actions are taken if the strategy is not achieving intended outcomes.

Annex 2: Implementing corporate initiatives in FCV settings

Sector-specific implementation is tailored to FCV realities. In energy, results-based financing (RBF) subsidies are used in Nigeria to draw private off-grid developers into less secure areas. In agriculture, phased sequencing is used in Yemen and Afghanistan to stabilise value chains. In the health sector, NGOs are contracted in South Sudan, Somalia, and Afghanistan to deliver services by drawing on local knowledge. For social protection, digital systems like e-wallets enable rapid scale-up in Ukraine and the Sahel, facilitating transitions from humanitarian aid to state-led systems.