Overview

The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that identifies and assesses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe. This benchmark series combines analysis of historical data with projections up to 2035, examining key areas of interest such as the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) and charging infrastructure, battery demand, and key policy developments in major and emerging markets. The report provides a comprehensive view of the electrification of various transport modes, including passenger cars, light commercial vehicles (LCVs), two- and three-wheelers (2/3Ws), buses, and trucks.

In addition to market trends, the series considers the broader implications of growing EV adoption for electricity and oil consumption, as well as greenhouse gas emissions. This edition specifically addresses the ongoing energy crisis and its potential implications for policy and market development. It features dedicated chapters on automotive technology trends related to software, artificial intelligence (AI), and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology, alongside analysis of the affordability of electric cars and the global manufacturing and trade landscape for vehicles and their batteries.

Purpose

The primary purpose of this report is to track and monitor the progress of electric mobility worldwide to inform policy makers and stakeholders on how to best accelerate the electrification of the road transport sector. By identifying recent trends and providing evidence-based projections, the report helps decision-makers understand the challenges and opportunities associated with the transition to zero-emission vehicles. It serves as a tool for evaluating the effectiveness of existing policies, such as CO2 and fuel economy standards, and the impact of financial incentives like subsidies and tax credits on EV uptake.

Furthermore, the report highlights the energy security benefits of rising EV adoption, particularly for countries that rely heavily on oil imports. It provides analysis on how displacing oil consumption with electricity can reshape energy demand and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of technology-focused analysis on AI, software-defined vehicles, and ultra-fast charging is intended to provide insights into how technological advances are improving vehicle performance, reducing costs, and creating new opportunities for grid integration and peak demand management.

Methodology

The assessment is carried out using a scenario-based approach to explore the outlook to 2035. The analysis relies on three primary frameworks:

• The Current Policies Scenario (CPS), which considers no change in existing policies and regulations, offering a cautious perspective on deployment.
• The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which incorporates a broader set of policies, including those formally put forward but not yet adopted, and assesses the prospects for their realisation.
• The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, a normative pathway consistent with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Data is sourced from IEA member and association countries, country survey templates, and collaborations with various governmental and industry bodies, including the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI). The report utilises the IEA Manufacturing and Trade (MaT) model and the Global Energy and Climate Model to generate projections. Quantitative metrics used include annual sales volumes, sales-weighted average battery sizes, total cost of ownership (TCO) parity analysis, and public charging capacity per electric vehicle. The analysis also includes an “N-1 analysis” to assess the supply security and resilience of lithium-ion battery supply chains by evaluating the consequences of losing the largest exporter of key components.

Use for finance professionals

Finance professionals can utilise this report to evaluate investment opportunities and risks across the automotive value chain. The detailed data on public and private charging infrastructure requirements provides a basis for assessing capital allocation needs, with the report projecting over USD 260 billion in public charging investment through 2035 under current policies. Analysis of battery manufacturing capacity, including added, cancelled, and reallocated projects, offers insights into the stability and future growth of the battery industry, which is essential for valuation and risk assessment of energy storage and technology companies.

The report’s analysis of automaker profitability, write-downs, and shifting electrification targets is particularly relevant for equity researchers and portfolio managers. It identifies which original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are successfully navigating the transition to software-defined vehicles and which are scaling back ambitions due to policy shifts or financial pressures. Additionally, the insights into trade flows, tariff developments (such as in the European Union, Brazil, and Mexico), and the geographical concentration of supply chains help in assessing geopolitical risks and the potential impact of local content requirements on corporate cost structures and market access.