Introduction

Six of the nine planetary boundaries are now transgressed, exceeding the safe operating space for humanity (p.9). The Global Biodiversity Framework (2022) reinforces protection and restoration of nature in production landscapes.

Why the study

In 2023, 3.13 million medium and heavy-duty trucks and 332,000 heavy buses were produced globally, with demand expected to grow to 3.64 million and 523,000 by 2035 (p.13). The IEA predicts BEV buses and trucks will hold shares of about 40% and 30% respectively in global commercial vehicle sales by 2035 under the Announced Pledges Scenario (p.13).

Scope of the study

The study covers haulage trucks and buses across the full value chain, using the TNFD LEAP framework and WWF Risk Filter Suite, shaped by a WWF and TRATON GROUP joint working group.

Key concepts

IPBES identifies five direct drivers of nature change: land, freshwater and sea use change; resource exploitation; pollution; invasive species and diseases; and climate change, translating into physical, regulatory, reputational and market risks for companies.

Understanding the sector’s touchpoints with nature

A process heatmap maps commercial vehicle processes against nature-related impacts and dependencies, highlighting that touchpoints span the entire value chain, companies must collaborate with suppliers, and addressing climate change alone is insufficient (p.23).

Locating the interface with nature

Aluminium mining: Global demand is expected to rise by almost 40% by 2030 (p.29). Electric vehicles contain on average 60–80 kg more aluminium than ICE vehicles (p.29). Currently 70% of demand is met by virgin metal (p.29); recycled aluminium requires 95% less energy to produce (p.29).

Lithium mining: Global lithium-ion battery demand is expected to surpass 1 Terawatt hour in 2024, up from 70 GWh in 2015 (p.33). A demand-supply gap of 6% is projected by 2030 under the IEA Announced Pledges Scenario (p.33). China currently refines 60% of the world’s lithium (p.33).

Neodymium mining and processing: Demand for magnet rare earth elements is expected to nearly double by 2050, from 93 kilotons in 2023 to 181 kilotons (p.37). China accounted for 92% of refined global REE output in 2023 (p.37).

Natural rubber plantations: 70% of natural rubber goes to tyre production (p.39). Global production increased by 109% and harvested area by 72% between 2000 and 2020 (p.41). Demand is forecast to rise by 33% by 2030 (p.41). BEVs increase tyre wear, raising demand further.

Component manufacturing: Over 1,600 manufacturing sites belonging to 326 major supplier companies supplying 21 commercial vehicle OEMs were mapped (p.43). The semiconductor crisis (2020–2023) illustrated how supply chain vulnerabilities can create significant operational risks.

Use phase of commercial vehicles: Over 90% of lifecycle GHG emissions of a distribution vehicle come from the tailpipe in ICE vehicles; switching to BEVs brings this to null (p.45). Roads create habitat fragmentation, animal kills and noise impacts. Case examples from Sweden (targeting a 100% fossil-free fleet by 2045) and Brazil (currently 75% reliant on fossil fuels in transport) illustrate different pathways (p.49, p.51).

Conclusions & key takeaways

The BEV transition will reduce use-phase climate impacts but increase pressures from mining and battery disposal (p.55). Companies should investigate nature-related risks, take internal action on policies and processes, and engage externally with suppliers, governments and peers.

Way forward

WWF and TRATON call for sector-wide alignment on data availability, operational standards, best practices and regulatory engagement, emphasising that collaborative action at scale is essential.