About this pamphlet

This pamphlet, published in November 2023 by NatureFinance, contributes to debates on climate, nature, and sustainable development. It reflects growing concern that current climate ambition narratives are misaligned with reality and impede adequate preparation for future conditions. The paper aims to provoke debate and encourage unconventional actions commensurate with escalating climate and nature risks.

Getting stuck with A 1.5C ambition

The report argues that the global commitment to limit warming to 1.5°C, agreed under the Paris Agreement, has failed to mobilise sufficient political and business action. Persisting with this narrative discourages planning for higher warming outcomes and reinforces a misleading “win–win” assumption of smooth transition without structural disruption.

In brief

The paper states there is no longer a credible pathway to remain below 1.5°C. 2023 was the warmest year on record, with extreme heat, storms, floods, fires, and droughts affecting regions across Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America. Current trajectories point towards warming of 2°C or more, with each additional fraction of a degree materially worsening human and ecological outcomes.

The state we are in

Scientific assessments indicate a 66% chance of breaching 1.5°C for at least one year, potentially as early as 2026. Average global temperatures in 2023 exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for roughly one third of the year. The International Energy Agency estimates current policies align with approximately 2.4°C warming this century. Nature degradation is accelerating, with global biodiversity declining by around 70% since 1970.

Why we hold on to false hopes

Despite scientific evidence, political, business, and civil leaders continue to promote the feasibility of the 1.5°C target. The report argues this sustains denial, delays adaptation planning, and enables greenwashing. Historical crises such as the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 demonstrate that entrenched economic norms can be overturned rapidly when risks are acknowledged as existential.

Migrant citizenship

Climate and nature impacts are accelerating forced displacement. Currently, around 110 million people are forcibly displaced, with projections rising to one billion by 2050. Existing refugee systems are unfit for this scale. The paper suggests exploring new forms of rights and economic participation for permanently displaced populations, including portable livelihoods and collective representation beyond traditional state-based citizenship.

Resetting food security

Warming beyond 1.5°C will undermine soil quality, water availability, and crop yields, particularly in the African Sahel, Mediterranean, Central Europe, the Amazon, and parts of Africa. At 2°C, up to one third of the global population could face chronic water scarcity. The report questions the long-term viability of regenerative agriculture alone and highlights capital-intensive solutions, such as controlled-environment agriculture and lab-grown food, as potentially necessary to secure food supply under higher-risk climate conditions.

Directing finance

Financial flows remain misaligned with climate and nature goals. Fossil fuel investment continues, illustrated by US$113 billion committed by major oil companies to expand reserves. Disclosure, voluntary commitments, and risk-based approaches have proven insufficient. The report argues for more directive roles for central banks and supervisors, including mandatory transition requirements, penalties for non-compliance, and abandoning strict notions of policy neutrality where climate stability is at risk.

Headwinds against disruptive action

Proposed shifts face resistance from governments, financial institutions, and advocates concerned about unintended consequences. However, the report contends that existing conventions, including central bank neutrality, have already been suspended during past crises, demonstrating scope for targeted intervention.

A straightforward choice

The paper concludes that accepting a future beyond 1.5°C is necessary to unlock serious mitigation, adaptation, and resilience planning. Maintaining false optimism constrains action. Only disruptive, unconventional measures are viewed as proportionate to the scale of climate and nature emergencies now facing global society.