Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries monitors a world out of balance

This report introduces a renewed “Doughnut” framework using 35 indicators across 21 dimensions to assess social deprivation and ecological overshoot between 2000 and 2022. While global GDP more than doubled in this period, social progress was modest and ecological pressures intensified. Meeting minimum human needs by 2030 would require progress five times faster, while halting ecological overshoot to stabilise Earth systems by 2050 would require reversing current trends nearly twice as quickly. The richest 20% of nations, with 15% of the population, account for over 40% of ecological overshoot, while the poorest 40%, representing 42% of the population, experience over 60% of the global social shortfall.

Current global status

In 2022, around 3 billion people (35% of the global population) fell below the Doughnut’s social foundation. Social shortfall ranged from 9% lacking electricity access to 75% perceiving corruption as widespread. Physical necessities such as energy and food showed lower shortfalls, while social cohesion and political voice showed higher. Ecological overshoot affected at least six of nine planetary boundaries, with overshoot ranging from 50% below the stratospheric ozone boundary to more than ten times above safe limits for hazardous chemicals and species extinction. The median overshoot was nearly double the ecological ceiling.

Twenty-first century trends

Between 2000 and 2022, social indicators improved modestly, with the median share of the population in shortfall decreasing from 47% to 35%. Improvements included internet connectivity, health service coverage, child survival, sanitation and access to clean indoor fuels, reducing deprivation for 24–56% of people depending on the indicator. However, food insecurity and political voice worsened, while undernourishment, youth unemployment, safe drinking water, social support and corruption showed little change.

Ecological pressures worsened significantly. Ten ecological indicators with time-series data, except for ozone depletion, deteriorated. Overshoot more than doubled for CO₂ concentration, radiative forcing, hazardous chemicals and phosphorus use. Median overshoot increased from 75% to 96% of the ecological ceiling between 2000 and 2022.

Progress far off-course

Social shortfall indicators improved by a median of 0.5 percentage points per year, but eliminating deprivation by 2030 would require acceleration by nearly five times. Even the best-performing indicators, such as health coverage, electricity access and internet connectivity, must improve 25–80% faster. Laggard indicators—including poverty, youth unemployment, unsafe water, informal housing, income inequality and corruption—require at least tenfold acceleration.

Ecological overshoot worsened at a median of 2.8 percentage points per year. Reversing overshoot by 2050 would require shifting to regeneration at nearly 7 percentage points per year, almost twice the historical pace of degradation. For some indicators, such as atmospheric carbon dioxide and species extinction, reversal may be physically impossible by 2050.

Inequalities in shortfall and overshoot

Analysis of country clusters by income highlights stark disparities. The richest 20% of countries had the lowest social shortfalls (median 6.6%) but contributed 26–73% of ecological overshoot, with footprints 1.3–12.4 times higher than the poorest 40%. Conversely, the poorest 40% had the highest social shortfalls (median 60%), up to 94 times greater than the richest, but contributed only 4% of ecological overshoot. The middle 40% showed results closer to their share of global population.

Redefining and reorienting progress

The report argues for shifting the conception, metrics and directionality of progress. GDP growth has not delivered safe and just outcomes. Instead, nations should reorient towards ecological regeneration and social distribution. The Doughnut provides an integrated framework for monitoring progress annually, balancing social needs and planetary stability. The analysis reinforces calls for post-growth strategies, including degrowth and well-being economies, adapted to national contexts given the disproportionate responsibilities of high-income countries.